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Politics·Primaries

Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner

icon for Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Alexander Vindman 83.7%

Jared Moskowitz 5.3%

Charlie Crist 2.1%

Angie Nixon 1.2%

Polymarket

$134,562 Vol.

Alexander Vindman 83.7%

Jared Moskowitz 5.3%

Charlie Crist 2.1%

Angie Nixon 1.2%

Polymarket

$134,562 Vol.

Alexander Vindman

$34,982 Vol.

84%

Jared Moskowitz

$49,396 Vol.

5%

Charlie Crist

$2,462 Vol.

2%

Angie Nixon

$2,086 Vol.

1%

Joey Atkins

$2,364 Vol.

1%

Josh Weil

$5,521 Vol.

19%

Alan Grayson

$2,063 Vol.

1%

Jennifer Jenkins

$35,688 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Alexander Vindman leads trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win Florida's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 18, driven by his April 22 qualification after paying the $10,440 fee, blockbuster $8.2 million first-quarter fundraising haul reported early April, and national profile as the retired Army lieutenant colonel who testified in Trump's first impeachment. Hector Mujica's April 6 withdrawal and endorsement further consolidated support behind Vindman, positioning him as the establishment choice in a crowded field post-April 24 filing deadline. Josh Weil trails at 26% on prior fundraising success from an unsuccessful 2025 House special election bid, suggesting self-funding potential, while Rep. Jared Moskowitz (5%) and ex-Gov. Charlie Crist (2%) lag without comparable recent catalysts. No public primary polls have emerged, but traders reflect skin-in-the-game optimism on Vindman's incumbency-free path amid Democratic recruiting momentum for the special election seat vacated by Marco Rubio. Late scandals or surges by challengers like state Rep. Angie Nixon could shift dynamics before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$134,562
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Alexander Vindman leads trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win Florida's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 18, driven by his April 22 qualification after paying the $10,440 fee, blockbuster $8.2 million first-quarter fundraising haul reported early April, and national profile as the retired Army lieutenant colonel who testified in Trump's first impeachment. Hector Mujica's April 6 withdrawal and endorsement further consolidated support behind Vindman, positioning him as the establishment choice in a crowded field post-April 24 filing deadline. Josh Weil trails at 26% on prior fundraising success from an unsuccessful 2025 House special election bid, suggesting self-funding potential, while Rep. Jared Moskowitz (5%) and ex-Gov. Charlie Crist (2%) lag without comparable recent catalysts. No public primary polls have emerged, but traders reflect skin-in-the-game optimism on Vindman's incumbency-free path amid Democratic recruiting momentum for the special election seat vacated by Marco Rubio. Late scandals or surges by challengers like state Rep. Angie Nixon could shift dynamics before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$134,562
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alexander Vindman" at 84%, followed by "Josh Weil" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $134.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Alexander Vindman" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Josh Weil" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.