Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 25–30 tweets daily during active periods, positions the 200-219 range as the market's clear frontrunner at 55.5% implied probability for the June 5–12 window, with 220-239 close behind. Traders factor in his established pattern of frequent updates on Tesla, SpaceX, and platform matters, tempered by occasional quieter stretches. No major breaking events or sustained high-volume news cycles have notably shifted volume expectations in the past week, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around historical norms rather than outlier spikes. The remaining days offer limited upside for dramatic changes before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200-219 48%
220-239 31.6%
240-259 8.6%
180-199 4.3%
$4,308,094 Vol.
$4,308,094 Vol.
Jun 12, 2026
180-199
4%
200-219
48%
220-239
32%
240-259
9%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 48%
220-239 31.6%
240-259 8.6%
180-199 4.3%
$4,308,094 Vol.
$4,308,094 Vol.
Jun 12, 2026
180-199
$309,073 Vol.
4%
200-219
$167,807 Vol.
48%
220-239
$201,271 Vol.
32%
240-259
$206,009 Vol.
9%
260-279
$211,560 Vol.
1%
280-299
$245,427 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$211,279 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$228,313 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$171,961 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$119,378 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$121,449 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$184,277 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$174,105 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$129,514 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$123,991 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$117,688 Vol.
<1%
500+
$184,616 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 5 12:00 PM ET to June 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 25–30 tweets daily during active periods, positions the 200-219 range as the market's clear frontrunner at 55.5% implied probability for the June 5–12 window, with 220-239 close behind. Traders factor in his established pattern of frequent updates on Tesla, SpaceX, and platform matters, tempered by occasional quieter stretches. No major breaking events or sustained high-volume news cycles have notably shifted volume expectations in the past week, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around historical norms rather than outlier spikes. The remaining days offer limited upside for dramatic changes before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 5 12:00 PM ET to June 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$4,308,094End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 5 12:00 PM ET to June 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 25–30 tweets daily during active periods, positions the 200-219 range as the market's clear frontrunner at 55.5% implied probability for the June 5–12 window, with 220-239 close behind. Traders factor in his established pattern of frequent updates on Tesla, SpaceX, and platform matters, tempered by occasional quieter stretches. No major breaking events or sustained high-volume news cycles have notably shifted volume expectations in the past week, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around historical norms rather than outlier spikes. The remaining days offer limited upside for dramatic changes before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 5 12:00 PM ET to June 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$4,308,094End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 25–30 tweets daily during active periods, positions the 200-219 range as the market's clear frontrunner at 55.5% implied probability for the June 5–12 window, with 220-239 close behind. Traders factor in his established pattern of frequent updates on Tesla, SpaceX, and platform matters, tempered by occasional quieter stretches. No major breaking events or sustained high-volume news cycles have notably shifted volume expectations in the past week, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around historical norms rather than outlier spikes. The remaining days offer limited upside for dramatic changes before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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