Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 40-64 tweet range at 46.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from April 30 to May 2, reflecting his recent moderation to 23-28 posts daily—down from March's 42 average—amid the high-stakes OpenAI trial in Oakland, where Musk testified April 28-29 and proceedings likely extend into the period. The <40 outcome at 26.5% accounts for potential further suppression from court demands, while 65-89 at 18.5% anticipates possible viral spikes on SpaceX updates or cultural commentary. No major launches or announcements are scheduled, leaving uncertainty tied to trial duration and Musk's unpredictable engagement bursts on the platform he owns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 48%
<40 28%
65-89 19%
90-114 6%
$400,303 Vol.
$400,303 Vol.
May 2, 2026
<40
28%
40-64
48%
65-89
19%
90-114
6%
115-139
2%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 48%
<40 28%
65-89 19%
90-114 6%
$400,303 Vol.
$400,303 Vol.
May 2, 2026
<40
$61,755 Vol.
28%
40-64
$28,847 Vol.
48%
65-89
$26,444 Vol.
19%
90-114
$41,143 Vol.
6%
115-139
$27,384 Vol.
2%
140-164
$23,094 Vol.
1%
165-189
$30,326 Vol.
1%
190-214
$74,932 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$45,195 Vol.
<1%
240+
$41,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 40-64 tweet range at 46.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from April 30 to May 2, reflecting his recent moderation to 23-28 posts daily—down from March's 42 average—amid the high-stakes OpenAI trial in Oakland, where Musk testified April 28-29 and proceedings likely extend into the period. The <40 outcome at 26.5% accounts for potential further suppression from court demands, while 65-89 at 18.5% anticipates possible viral spikes on SpaceX updates or cultural commentary. No major launches or announcements are scheduled, leaving uncertainty tied to trial duration and Musk's unpredictable engagement bursts on the platform he owns.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$400,303End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 40-64 tweet range at 46.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from April 30 to May 2, reflecting his recent moderation to 23-28 posts daily—down from March's 42 average—amid the high-stakes OpenAI trial in Oakland, where Musk testified April 28-29 and proceedings likely extend into the period. The <40 outcome at 26.5% accounts for potential further suppression from court demands, while 65-89 at 18.5% anticipates possible viral spikes on SpaceX updates or cultural commentary. No major launches or announcements are scheduled, leaving uncertainty tied to trial duration and Musk's unpredictable engagement bursts on the platform he owns.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$400,303End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 40-64 tweet range at 46.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from April 30 to May 2, reflecting his recent moderation to 23-28 posts daily—down from March's 42 average—amid the high-stakes OpenAI trial in Oakland, where Musk testified April 28-29 and proceedings likely extend into the period. The <40 outcome at 26.5% accounts for potential further suppression from court demands, while 65-89 at 18.5% anticipates possible viral spikes on SpaceX updates or cultural commentary. No major launches or announcements are scheduled, leaving uncertainty tied to trial duration and Musk's unpredictable engagement bursts on the platform he owns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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