Trader consensus on Polymarket gives the 40-64 posts range a leading 47.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, anchored by his recent pace of about 23 posts per day over the April 24-May 1 window, per live trackers like XTracker. This reflects a moderated tempo amid high-profile distractions, including Musk's April 29-30 testimony in the closely watched OpenAI lawsuit against Sam Altman, which drew intense media scrutiny and may limit posting. A SpaceX Falcon success prompted a congrats post early April 30, sustaining baseline engagement, while <40 at 26% accounts for potential trial extensions curbing output. Higher ranges lag due to no major catalysts like earnings or launches, with resolution tied strictly to @elonmusk posts by May 2, 12:00 PM ET.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 48%
<40 27%
65-89 19%
90-114 6%
$400,828 Vol.
$400,828 Vol.
May 2, 2026
<40
27%
40-64
48%
65-89
19%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 48%
<40 27%
65-89 19%
90-114 6%
$400,828 Vol.
$400,828 Vol.
May 2, 2026
<40
$62,013 Vol.
27%
40-64
$28,847 Vol.
48%
65-89
$26,471 Vol.
19%
90-114
$41,170 Vol.
6%
115-139
$27,384 Vol.
1%
140-164
$23,094 Vol.
1%
165-189
$30,326 Vol.
1%
190-214
$74,932 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$45,195 Vol.
<1%
240+
$41,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives the 40-64 posts range a leading 47.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, anchored by his recent pace of about 23 posts per day over the April 24-May 1 window, per live trackers like XTracker. This reflects a moderated tempo amid high-profile distractions, including Musk's April 29-30 testimony in the closely watched OpenAI lawsuit against Sam Altman, which drew intense media scrutiny and may limit posting. A SpaceX Falcon success prompted a congrats post early April 30, sustaining baseline engagement, while <40 at 26% accounts for potential trial extensions curbing output. Higher ranges lag due to no major catalysts like earnings or launches, with resolution tied strictly to @elonmusk posts by May 2, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$400,828End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives the 40-64 posts range a leading 47.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, anchored by his recent pace of about 23 posts per day over the April 24-May 1 window, per live trackers like XTracker. This reflects a moderated tempo amid high-profile distractions, including Musk's April 29-30 testimony in the closely watched OpenAI lawsuit against Sam Altman, which drew intense media scrutiny and may limit posting. A SpaceX Falcon success prompted a congrats post early April 30, sustaining baseline engagement, while <40 at 26% accounts for potential trial extensions curbing output. Higher ranges lag due to no major catalysts like earnings or launches, with resolution tied strictly to @elonmusk posts by May 2, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$400,828End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives the 40-64 posts range a leading 47.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, anchored by his recent pace of about 23 posts per day over the April 24-May 1 window, per live trackers like XTracker. This reflects a moderated tempo amid high-profile distractions, including Musk's April 29-30 testimony in the closely watched OpenAI lawsuit against Sam Altman, which drew intense media scrutiny and may limit posting. A SpaceX Falcon success prompted a congrats post early April 30, sustaining baseline engagement, while <40 at 26% accounts for potential trial extensions curbing output. Higher ranges lag due to no major catalysts like earnings or launches, with resolution tied strictly to @elonmusk posts by May 2, 12:00 PM ET.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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