Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 140-199 X posts for Elon Musk from April 28 to May 5, with 160-179 tweets leading at 17.7% implied probability, reflecting his recent moderate pace of roughly 20-26 posts per day observed through April 30 in overlapping prior markets. This stems from steady activity amid routine Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI updates, without major catalysts like launches or controversies sparking the high-volume bursts seen in past weeks (e.g., 37/day in late March). Competitive dynamics hinge on Elon's unpredictable spikes from viral political commentary or breaking news, with no confirmed events May 1-5 to alter trajectory; traders eye daily fluctuations as key swing factors before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated160-179 17.5%
140-159 17.1%
180-199 14.8%
120-139 12.3%
$4,404,898 Vol.
$4,404,898 Vol.
May 5, 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
1%
80-99
5%
100-119
8%
120-139
12%
140-159
17%
160-179
18%
180-199
15%
200-219
12%
220-239
8%
240-259
3%
260-279
2%
280-299
1%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 17.5%
140-159 17.1%
180-199 14.8%
120-139 12.3%
$4,404,898 Vol.
$4,404,898 Vol.
May 5, 2026
<20
$377,786 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$202,403 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$251,243 Vol.
1%
60-79
$411,768 Vol.
1%
80-99
$343,951 Vol.
5%
100-119
$200,832 Vol.
8%
120-139
$188,314 Vol.
12%
140-159
$182,466 Vol.
17%
160-179
$160,320 Vol.
18%
180-199
$136,777 Vol.
15%
200-219
$99,075 Vol.
12%
220-239
$102,138 Vol.
8%
240-259
$101,351 Vol.
3%
260-279
$101,439 Vol.
2%
280-299
$106,340 Vol.
1%
300-319
$112,338 Vol.
1%
320-339
$105,590 Vol.
1%
340-359
$129,365 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$120,044 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$214,513 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$173,460 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$120,781 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$114,685 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$111,428 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$116,123 Vol.
<1%
500+
$123,180 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 140-199 X posts for Elon Musk from April 28 to May 5, with 160-179 tweets leading at 17.7% implied probability, reflecting his recent moderate pace of roughly 20-26 posts per day observed through April 30 in overlapping prior markets. This stems from steady activity amid routine Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI updates, without major catalysts like launches or controversies sparking the high-volume bursts seen in past weeks (e.g., 37/day in late March). Competitive dynamics hinge on Elon's unpredictable spikes from viral political commentary or breaking news, with no confirmed events May 1-5 to alter trajectory; traders eye daily fluctuations as key swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$4,404,898End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 140-199 X posts for Elon Musk from April 28 to May 5, with 160-179 tweets leading at 17.7% implied probability, reflecting his recent moderate pace of roughly 20-26 posts per day observed through April 30 in overlapping prior markets. This stems from steady activity amid routine Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI updates, without major catalysts like launches or controversies sparking the high-volume bursts seen in past weeks (e.g., 37/day in late March). Competitive dynamics hinge on Elon's unpredictable spikes from viral political commentary or breaking news, with no confirmed events May 1-5 to alter trajectory; traders eye daily fluctuations as key swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$4,404,898End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 140-199 X posts for Elon Musk from April 28 to May 5, with 160-179 tweets leading at 17.7% implied probability, reflecting his recent moderate pace of roughly 20-26 posts per day observed through April 30 in overlapping prior markets. This stems from steady activity amid routine Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI updates, without major catalysts like launches or controversies sparking the high-volume bursts seen in past weeks (e.g., 37/day in late March). Competitive dynamics hinge on Elon's unpredictable spikes from viral political commentary or breaking news, with no confirmed events May 1-5 to alter trajectory; traders eye daily fluctuations as key swing factors before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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