Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 90% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement amid recent massive private fundraising—including a $5 billion equity round in February at a $134 billion valuation and $1.8 billion in debt in January—that provides ample runway without public market pressures. Current SaaS multiples remain depressed, positioning the data lakehouse leader poorly against crowded mega-IPO calendars featuring SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, as highlighted in late-April analyst commentary urging a pivot toward proprietary datacenters for neo-cloud differentiation. A surprise S-1 confidential filing, SaaS market recovery, or accelerated index inclusion rules from S&P/Nasdaq could challenge this, but timelines typically span 3–6 months post-funding.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 88.5%
100–125B 7.3%
<100B 3.1%
250B+ 1.4%
$397,025 Vol.
$397,025 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
3%
100–125B
7%
125–150B
1%
150–175B
1%
175–200B
1%
200–250B
<1%
250B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
89%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 88.5%
100–125B 7.3%
<100B 3.1%
250B+ 1.4%
$397,025 Vol.
$397,025 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$32,935 Vol.
3%
100–125B
$61,039 Vol.
7%
125–150B
$25,567 Vol.
1%
150–175B
$59,389 Vol.
1%
175–200B
$57,541 Vol.
1%
200–250B
$19,682 Vol.
<1%
250B+
$125,630 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$15,243 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 90% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement amid recent massive private fundraising—including a $5 billion equity round in February at a $134 billion valuation and $1.8 billion in debt in January—that provides ample runway without public market pressures. Current SaaS multiples remain depressed, positioning the data lakehouse leader poorly against crowded mega-IPO calendars featuring SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, as highlighted in late-April analyst commentary urging a pivot toward proprietary datacenters for neo-cloud differentiation. A surprise S-1 confidential filing, SaaS market recovery, or accelerated index inclusion rules from S&P/Nasdaq could challenge this, but timelines typically span 3–6 months post-funding.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$397,025End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 90% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement amid recent massive private fundraising—including a $5 billion equity round in February at a $134 billion valuation and $1.8 billion in debt in January—that provides ample runway without public market pressures. Current SaaS multiples remain depressed, positioning the data lakehouse leader poorly against crowded mega-IPO calendars featuring SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, as highlighted in late-April analyst commentary urging a pivot toward proprietary datacenters for neo-cloud differentiation. A surprise S-1 confidential filing, SaaS market recovery, or accelerated index inclusion rules from S&P/Nasdaq could challenge this, but timelines typically span 3–6 months post-funding.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$397,025End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 90% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement amid recent massive private fundraising—including a $5 billion equity round in February at a $134 billion valuation and $1.8 billion in debt in January—that provides ample runway without public market pressures. Current SaaS multiples remain depressed, positioning the data lakehouse leader poorly against crowded mega-IPO calendars featuring SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, as highlighted in late-April analyst commentary urging a pivot toward proprietary datacenters for neo-cloud differentiation. A surprise S-1 confidential filing, SaaS market recovery, or accelerated index inclusion rules from S&P/Nasdaq could challenge this, but timelines typically span 3–6 months post-funding.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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