Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—39% for a 750B–1T OpenAI IPO closing market cap, 38.5% for 500–750B, and 37% for 1.5T+—reflect deep uncertainty fueled by recent leadership tensions and revenue shortfalls. OpenAI's March 2026 $122 billion funding round valued the firm at $852 billion post-money, landing squarely in the leading bin, yet CFO Sarah Friar has publicly questioned CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO push, citing missed internal revenue targets, $600 billion in planned AI compute spend, and profitability delayed until 2030. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI intensify scrutiny on OpenAI's moat in large language models, with swing factors including S-1 filing progress, enterprise revenue growth to 40% of total, and macroeconomic AI hype versus capital efficiency. Resolution hinges on H2 2026 regulatory filings and earnings trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated750B–1T 42%
1.5T+ 37.1%
1T–1.25T 37%
1.25T–1.5T 36%
$15,954 Vol.
$15,954 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
13%
500–750B
36%
750B–1T
42%
1T–1.25T
37%
1.25T–1.5T
36%
1.5T+
37%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
23%
750B–1T 42%
1.5T+ 37.1%
1T–1.25T 37%
1.25T–1.5T 36%
$15,954 Vol.
$15,954 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$97 Vol.
13%
500–750B
$245 Vol.
36%
750B–1T
$352 Vol.
42%
1T–1.25T
$3,145 Vol.
37%
1.25T–1.5T
$434 Vol.
36%
1.5T+
$275 Vol.
37%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$11,406 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—39% for a 750B–1T OpenAI IPO closing market cap, 38.5% for 500–750B, and 37% for 1.5T+—reflect deep uncertainty fueled by recent leadership tensions and revenue shortfalls. OpenAI's March 2026 $122 billion funding round valued the firm at $852 billion post-money, landing squarely in the leading bin, yet CFO Sarah Friar has publicly questioned CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO push, citing missed internal revenue targets, $600 billion in planned AI compute spend, and profitability delayed until 2030. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI intensify scrutiny on OpenAI's moat in large language models, with swing factors including S-1 filing progress, enterprise revenue growth to 40% of total, and macroeconomic AI hype versus capital efficiency. Resolution hinges on H2 2026 regulatory filings and earnings trajectory.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$15,954End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—39% for a 750B–1T OpenAI IPO closing market cap, 38.5% for 500–750B, and 37% for 1.5T+—reflect deep uncertainty fueled by recent leadership tensions and revenue shortfalls. OpenAI's March 2026 $122 billion funding round valued the firm at $852 billion post-money, landing squarely in the leading bin, yet CFO Sarah Friar has publicly questioned CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO push, citing missed internal revenue targets, $600 billion in planned AI compute spend, and profitability delayed until 2030. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI intensify scrutiny on OpenAI's moat in large language models, with swing factors including S-1 filing progress, enterprise revenue growth to 40% of total, and macroeconomic AI hype versus capital efficiency. Resolution hinges on H2 2026 regulatory filings and earnings trajectory.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$15,954End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—39% for a 750B–1T OpenAI IPO closing market cap, 38.5% for 500–750B, and 37% for 1.5T+—reflect deep uncertainty fueled by recent leadership tensions and revenue shortfalls. OpenAI's March 2026 $122 billion funding round valued the firm at $852 billion post-money, landing squarely in the leading bin, yet CFO Sarah Friar has publicly questioned CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO push, citing missed internal revenue targets, $600 billion in planned AI compute spend, and profitability delayed until 2030. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI intensify scrutiny on OpenAI's moat in large language models, with swing factors including S-1 filing progress, enterprise revenue growth to 40% of total, and macroeconomic AI hype versus capital efficiency. Resolution hinges on H2 2026 regulatory filings and earnings trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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