Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 64.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing as of late April and the company's fresh liquidity from a February 2026 funding round exceeding $7 billion in equity and debt at a $134 billion private valuation. Surging over 65% year-over-year to a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate underscores robust growth in its lakehouse platform and AI tools like Mosaic AI, yet ample capital diminishes near-term public listing pressure amid softening SaaS multiples and regulatory scrutiny on enterprise data platforms. The 100–125B outcome at 16.7% reflects expected public market discounts from current private marks, with higher brackets dismissed due to valuation comps like Snowflake. Watch for confidential S-1 signals or Q2 earnings previews that could catalyze shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 66.4%
100–125B 13.7%
<100B 2.9%
250B+ 2.8%
$397,280 Vol.
$397,280 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
3%
100–125B
14%
125–150B
1%
150–175B
1%
175–200B
1%
200–250B
<1%
250B+
3%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
66%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 66.4%
100–125B 13.7%
<100B 2.9%
250B+ 2.8%
$397,280 Vol.
$397,280 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$32,935 Vol.
3%
100–125B
$61,274 Vol.
14%
125–150B
$25,567 Vol.
1%
150–175B
$59,389 Vol.
1%
175–200B
$57,541 Vol.
1%
200–250B
$19,682 Vol.
<1%
250B+
$125,646 Vol.
3%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$15,247 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 64.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing as of late April and the company's fresh liquidity from a February 2026 funding round exceeding $7 billion in equity and debt at a $134 billion private valuation. Surging over 65% year-over-year to a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate underscores robust growth in its lakehouse platform and AI tools like Mosaic AI, yet ample capital diminishes near-term public listing pressure amid softening SaaS multiples and regulatory scrutiny on enterprise data platforms. The 100–125B outcome at 16.7% reflects expected public market discounts from current private marks, with higher brackets dismissed due to valuation comps like Snowflake. Watch for confidential S-1 signals or Q2 earnings previews that could catalyze shifts.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$397,280End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 64.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing as of late April and the company's fresh liquidity from a February 2026 funding round exceeding $7 billion in equity and debt at a $134 billion private valuation. Surging over 65% year-over-year to a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate underscores robust growth in its lakehouse platform and AI tools like Mosaic AI, yet ample capital diminishes near-term public listing pressure amid softening SaaS multiples and regulatory scrutiny on enterprise data platforms. The 100–125B outcome at 16.7% reflects expected public market discounts from current private marks, with higher brackets dismissed due to valuation comps like Snowflake. Watch for confidential S-1 signals or Q2 earnings previews that could catalyze shifts.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$397,280End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 64.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing as of late April and the company's fresh liquidity from a February 2026 funding round exceeding $7 billion in equity and debt at a $134 billion private valuation. Surging over 65% year-over-year to a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate underscores robust growth in its lakehouse platform and AI tools like Mosaic AI, yet ample capital diminishes near-term public listing pressure amid softening SaaS multiples and regulatory scrutiny on enterprise data platforms. The 100–125B outcome at 16.7% reflects expected public market discounts from current private marks, with higher brackets dismissed due to valuation comps like Snowflake. Watch for confidential S-1 signals or Q2 earnings previews that could catalyze shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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