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Politics·Primaries

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Manny Rutinel 80%

Shannon Bird 20%

Yadira Caraveo <1%

John Szemler <1%

Polymarket

$18,312 Vol.

Manny Rutinel 80%

Shannon Bird 20%

Yadira Caraveo <1%

John Szemler <1%

Polymarket

$18,312 Vol.

Manny Rutinel

$11,379 Vol.

80%

Shannon Bird

$2,438 Vol.

20%

Yadira Caraveo

$858 Vol.

<1%

John Szemler

$1,027 Vol.

<1%

Amie Baca-Oehlert

$1,142 Vol.

<1%

Dave Young

$1,468 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**State Rep. Manny Rutinel holds overwhelming trader consensus at 80.5% to win Colorado's 8th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 30, reflecting his edge in the winnowed two-way race against former Rep. Shannon Bird (19.5%).** Cook Political Report notes the field narrowed after ex-incumbent Yadira Caraveo's September 2025 exit, positioning Rutinel—seen as GOP-preferred for general weakness—as frontrunner despite Bird's moderate endorsements like Blue Dog PAC. A Bird internal poll (April 20-22, n=400 likely primary voters) shows her narrow 25%-24% lead over Rutinel amid 45% undecideds, but progressive attacks labeling Bird "ICE’s favorite Democrat" signal primary vulnerabilities. Negligible odds for others underscore consolidated support; high undecideds and intra-party tensions on immigration could tip toward Rutinel's consolidation.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,312
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**State Rep. Manny Rutinel holds overwhelming trader consensus at 80.5% to win Colorado's 8th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 30, reflecting his edge in the winnowed two-way race against former Rep. Shannon Bird (19.5%).** Cook Political Report notes the field narrowed after ex-incumbent Yadira Caraveo's September 2025 exit, positioning Rutinel—seen as GOP-preferred for general weakness—as frontrunner despite Bird's moderate endorsements like Blue Dog PAC. A Bird internal poll (April 20-22, n=400 likely primary voters) shows her narrow 25%-24% lead over Rutinel amid 45% undecideds, but progressive attacks labeling Bird "ICE’s favorite Democrat" signal primary vulnerabilities. Negligible odds for others underscore consolidated support; high undecideds and intra-party tensions on immigration could tip toward Rutinel's consolidation.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,312
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Manny Rutinel" at 80%, followed by "Shannon Bird" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $18.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Manny Rutinel" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Shannon Bird" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.