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icon for CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

icon for CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

73% chance
Polymarket

$115,462 Vol.

73% chance
Polymarket

$115,462 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 73% probability that the CDC will issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to an outbreak posing substantial risk—by December 31, 2026, driven by escalating U.S. measles outbreaks with 1,792 confirmed cases and 22 outbreaks as of mid-April, primarily among unvaccinated individuals amid declining immunization rates. Compounding this, H5N1 bird flu persists with 71 U.S. human cases since 2024 (mostly occupational exposures, two deaths, no person-to-person transmission per CDC surveillance), alongside global polio prompting a March Level 2 advisory for 30+ countries. While public health risk remains low, these trajectories signal potential for intensified CDC response; weekly FluView reports and state-level case updates will provide key catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$115,462
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 73% probability that the CDC will issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to an outbreak posing substantial risk—by December 31, 2026, driven by escalating U.S. measles outbreaks with 1,792 confirmed cases and 22 outbreaks as of mid-April, primarily among unvaccinated individuals amid declining immunization rates. Compounding this, H5N1 bird flu persists with 71 U.S. human cases since 2024 (mostly occupational exposures, two deaths, no person-to-person transmission per CDC surveillance), alongside global polio prompting a March Level 2 advisory for 30+ countries. While public health risk remains low, these trajectories signal potential for intensified CDC response; weekly FluView reports and state-level case updates will provide key catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$115,462
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 73% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 73¢, the market collectively assigns a 73% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?" has generated $115.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?" is 73% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 73% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.