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Economy·Cpi

April Inflation US - Annual

icon for April Inflation US - Annual
Economy·Cpi

April Inflation US - Annual

May 12

May 12

Polymarket

$218,924 Vol.

Polymarket

$218,924 Vol.

≤3.1%

$10,534 Vol.

1%

3.2%

$6,205 Vol.

1%

3.3%

$6,647 Vol.

1%

3.4%

$7,683 Vol.

1%

3.5%

$9,260 Vol.

11%

3.6%

$20,030 Vol.

19%

3.7%

$53,651 Vol.

35%

3.8%

$52,162 Vol.

27%

3.9%

$27,704 Vol.

6%

4.0%

$12,421 Vol.

2%

≥4.1%

$12,629 Vol.

1%

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders' consensus prices a tight race for April 2026 year-over-year CPI, with 3.7% leading at 33.8% implied probability, closely trailed by 3.8% (26.9%) and 3.6% (19.5%), reflecting heightened uncertainty from gasoline prices surging to four-year highs near $4.20 per gallon in late April amid geopolitical risks. March's headline CPI accelerated to 3.3%—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy spike, while core CPI edged to 2.6%; Cleveland Fed nowcasts suggest April headline around 3.6% as shelter costs remain sticky but base effects provide some offset. Key swing factors include final energy pass-through and services inflation, with resolution looming on the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$218,924
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders' consensus prices a tight race for April 2026 year-over-year CPI, with 3.7% leading at 33.8% implied probability, closely trailed by 3.8% (26.9%) and 3.6% (19.5%), reflecting heightened uncertainty from gasoline prices surging to four-year highs near $4.20 per gallon in late April amid geopolitical risks. March's headline CPI accelerated to 3.3%—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy spike, while core CPI edged to 2.6%; Cleveland Fed nowcasts suggest April headline around 3.6% as shelter costs remain sticky but base effects provide some offset. Key swing factors include final energy pass-through and services inflation, with resolution looming on the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$218,924
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"April Inflation US - Annual" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.7%" at 35%, followed by "3.8%" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "April Inflation US - Annual" has generated $218.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "April Inflation US - Annual," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "April Inflation US - Annual" is "3.7%" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.8%" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "April Inflation US - Annual" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.