Recent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have lifted South Africa's headline CPI to 4.0% in April 2026 from 3.1% in March, widening the gap above the South African Reserve Bank's newly lowered 3% target while food and core measures remain contained. Official forecasts from National Treasury and the SARB center on a 3.4% average for 2026, tempered by expectations of fading fuel pass-through and resilient harvests, though rand volatility and administered prices pose upside risks. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered across the 2.6-3.5% range, traders are weighing near-term data prints against the central bank's commitment to the lower target amid subdued domestic demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
<2.6% 45.9%
2.6-2.9% 39.1%
2.9-3.2% 38.9%
4.4-4.7% 4.3%
$21,426 Vol.
$21,426 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
46%
2.6-2.9%
39%
2.9-3.2%
39%
3.2-3.5%
34%
3.5-3.8%
28%
3.8-4.1%
33%
4.1-4.4%
44%
4.4-4.7%
11%
4.7-5.0%
4%
>5.0%
16%
<2.6% 45.9%
2.6-2.9% 39.1%
2.9-3.2% 38.9%
4.4-4.7% 4.3%
$21,426 Vol.
$21,426 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
$267 Vol.
46%
2.6-2.9%
$282 Vol.
39%
2.9-3.2%
$369 Vol.
39%
3.2-3.5%
$369 Vol.
34%
3.5-3.8%
$471 Vol.
28%
3.8-4.1%
$661 Vol.
33%
4.1-4.4%
$539 Vol.
44%
4.4-4.7%
$12,146 Vol.
11%
4.7-5.0%
$373 Vol.
4%
>5.0%
$5,948 Vol.
16%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have lifted South Africa's headline CPI to 4.0% in April 2026 from 3.1% in March, widening the gap above the South African Reserve Bank's newly lowered 3% target while food and core measures remain contained. Official forecasts from National Treasury and the SARB center on a 3.4% average for 2026, tempered by expectations of fading fuel pass-through and resilient harvests, though rand volatility and administered prices pose upside risks. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered across the 2.6-3.5% range, traders are weighing near-term data prints against the central bank's commitment to the lower target amid subdued domestic demand.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$21,426End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have lifted South Africa's headline CPI to 4.0% in April 2026 from 3.1% in March, widening the gap above the South African Reserve Bank's newly lowered 3% target while food and core measures remain contained. Official forecasts from National Treasury and the SARB center on a 3.4% average for 2026, tempered by expectations of fading fuel pass-through and resilient harvests, though rand volatility and administered prices pose upside risks. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered across the 2.6-3.5% range, traders are weighing near-term data prints against the central bank's commitment to the lower target amid subdued domestic demand.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$21,426End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have lifted South Africa's headline CPI to 4.0% in April 2026 from 3.1% in March, widening the gap above the South African Reserve Bank's newly lowered 3% target while food and core measures remain contained. Official forecasts from National Treasury and the SARB center on a 3.4% average for 2026, tempered by expectations of fading fuel pass-through and resilient harvests, though rand volatility and administered prices pose upside risks. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered across the 2.6-3.5% range, traders are weighing near-term data prints against the central bank's commitment to the lower target amid subdued domestic demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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