March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—on a 0.9% month-over-month gain driven by soaring energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, prompting Polymarket traders to lift implied probabilities for April's annual rate toward 3.7% (34%) and 3.8% (27%). This tight contest reflects mixed leading indicators: March PPI headline jumped to 4.0% year-over-year on oil costs, though core cooled, while Cleveland Fed nowcasts a modest 0.45% April month-over-month print implying roughly 3.6% annualized. Key differentiators include persistent shelter inflation and services pricing, with resolution looming on the Bureau of Labor Statistics release May 12; sustained energy volatility could tip odds higher, underscoring trader caution above the Fed's 2% target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$216,384 Vol.
$216,384 Vol.
May 12, 2026
≤3.1%
1%
3.2%
1%
3.3%
1%
3.4%
1%
3.5%
11%
3.6%
19%
3.7%
34%
3.8%
27%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
2%
≥4.1%
1%
$216,384 Vol.
$216,384 Vol.
May 12, 2026
≤3.1%
$10,532 Vol.
1%
3.2%
$6,197 Vol.
1%
3.3%
$6,594 Vol.
1%
3.4%
$7,524 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$8,994 Vol.
11%
3.6%
$19,795 Vol.
19%
3.7%
$53,129 Vol.
34%
3.8%
$51,744 Vol.
27%
3.9%
$27,020 Vol.
5%
4.0%
$12,392 Vol.
2%
≥4.1%
$12,564 Vol.
1%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—on a 0.9% month-over-month gain driven by soaring energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, prompting Polymarket traders to lift implied probabilities for April's annual rate toward 3.7% (34%) and 3.8% (27%). This tight contest reflects mixed leading indicators: March PPI headline jumped to 4.0% year-over-year on oil costs, though core cooled, while Cleveland Fed nowcasts a modest 0.45% April month-over-month print implying roughly 3.6% annualized. Key differentiators include persistent shelter inflation and services pricing, with resolution looming on the Bureau of Labor Statistics release May 12; sustained energy volatility could tip odds higher, underscoring trader caution above the Fed's 2% target.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$216,384End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—on a 0.9% month-over-month gain driven by soaring energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, prompting Polymarket traders to lift implied probabilities for April's annual rate toward 3.7% (34%) and 3.8% (27%). This tight contest reflects mixed leading indicators: March PPI headline jumped to 4.0% year-over-year on oil costs, though core cooled, while Cleveland Fed nowcasts a modest 0.45% April month-over-month print implying roughly 3.6% annualized. Key differentiators include persistent shelter inflation and services pricing, with resolution looming on the Bureau of Labor Statistics release May 12; sustained energy volatility could tip odds higher, underscoring trader caution above the Fed's 2% target.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$216,384End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—on a 0.9% month-over-month gain driven by soaring energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, prompting Polymarket traders to lift implied probabilities for April's annual rate toward 3.7% (34%) and 3.8% (27%). This tight contest reflects mixed leading indicators: March PPI headline jumped to 4.0% year-over-year on oil costs, though core cooled, while Cleveland Fed nowcasts a modest 0.45% April month-over-month print implying roughly 3.6% annualized. Key differentiators include persistent shelter inflation and services pricing, with resolution looming on the Bureau of Labor Statistics release May 12; sustained energy volatility could tip odds higher, underscoring trader caution above the Fed's 2% target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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