Polymarket traders price a trader consensus around 25-30% for Argentina's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 25-29.9% band at 24.5% implied probability narrowly leading the closely contested 20-24.9% outcome at 19.1%, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation momentum under President Milei's fiscal austerity. March 2026 INDEC data showed 3.4% month-over-month CPI—the year's highest, lifting Q1 cumulative to 9.4% and annual YoY to 32.6%—exceeding expectations and tempering bets on sub-25% amid rising money supply growth near 32% YoY. Reuters and IMF economist medians forecast 30-30.4% full-year averages, aligning with higher bins, while JPMorgan eyes 27.5% year-end; key swings hinge on April CPI (due mid-May, est. 2.5% MoM) and sustained primary surplus amid weak consumption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25-29.9% 23%
20-24.9% 19.1%
35–39.9% 12.3%
40-44.9% 12.3%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<20%
12%
20-24.9%
19%
25-29.9%
23%
30.0-34.9%
16%
35–39.9%
12%
40-44.9%
12%
45%+
12%
25-29.9% 23%
20-24.9% 19.1%
35–39.9% 12.3%
40-44.9% 12.3%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<20%
$2,432 Vol.
12%
20-24.9%
$1,391 Vol.
19%
25-29.9%
$1,418 Vol.
23%
30.0-34.9%
$814 Vol.
16%
35–39.9%
$851 Vol.
12%
40-44.9%
$889 Vol.
12%
45%+
$1,027 Vol.
12%
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a trader consensus around 25-30% for Argentina's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 25-29.9% band at 24.5% implied probability narrowly leading the closely contested 20-24.9% outcome at 19.1%, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation momentum under President Milei's fiscal austerity. March 2026 INDEC data showed 3.4% month-over-month CPI—the year's highest, lifting Q1 cumulative to 9.4% and annual YoY to 32.6%—exceeding expectations and tempering bets on sub-25% amid rising money supply growth near 32% YoY. Reuters and IMF economist medians forecast 30-30.4% full-year averages, aligning with higher bins, while JPMorgan eyes 27.5% year-end; key swings hinge on April CPI (due mid-May, est. 2.5% MoM) and sustained primary surplus amid weak consumption.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
Volume
$8,822End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a trader consensus around 25-30% for Argentina's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 25-29.9% band at 24.5% implied probability narrowly leading the closely contested 20-24.9% outcome at 19.1%, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation momentum under President Milei's fiscal austerity. March 2026 INDEC data showed 3.4% month-over-month CPI—the year's highest, lifting Q1 cumulative to 9.4% and annual YoY to 32.6%—exceeding expectations and tempering bets on sub-25% amid rising money supply growth near 32% YoY. Reuters and IMF economist medians forecast 30-30.4% full-year averages, aligning with higher bins, while JPMorgan eyes 27.5% year-end; key swings hinge on April CPI (due mid-May, est. 2.5% MoM) and sustained primary surplus amid weak consumption.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$8,822End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a trader consensus around 25-30% for Argentina's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 25-29.9% band at 24.5% implied probability narrowly leading the closely contested 20-24.9% outcome at 19.1%, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation momentum under President Milei's fiscal austerity. March 2026 INDEC data showed 3.4% month-over-month CPI—the year's highest, lifting Q1 cumulative to 9.4% and annual YoY to 32.6%—exceeding expectations and tempering bets on sub-25% amid rising money supply growth near 32% YoY. Reuters and IMF economist medians forecast 30-30.4% full-year averages, aligning with higher bins, while JPMorgan eyes 27.5% year-end; key swings hinge on April CPI (due mid-May, est. 2.5% MoM) and sustained primary surplus amid weak consumption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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