Recent monthly inflation prints, including May’s 2.1% m/m decline to an eight-month low, reflect sustained disinflation under Argentina’s fiscal surplus and tighter monetary stance, yet the 33.6% May YoY rate and upward revisions to 29–30.5% end-2026 forecasts anchor the 30.0–34.9% outcome at 33.5% implied probability. Competitive pressure from the <20% bucket at 30.9% arises from uncertainty over whether inertia, relative price realignments, and nascent recovery will slow the pace versus analyst consensus near 30%, with upcoming INDEC releases and BCRA policy signals as key swing factors for year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<20% 49.3%
30.0-34.9% 36.2%
25-29.9% 11%
35–39.9% 10.9%
$10,727 Vol.
$10,727 Vol.
<20%
30%
20-24.9%
11%
25-29.9%
11%
30.0-34.9%
33%
35–39.9%
11%
40-44.9%
6%
45%+
6%
<20% 49.3%
30.0-34.9% 36.2%
25-29.9% 11%
35–39.9% 10.9%
$10,727 Vol.
$10,727 Vol.
<20%
30%
20-24.9%
11%
25-29.9%
11%
30.0-34.9%
33%
35–39.9%
11%
40-44.9%
6%
45%+
6%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly inflation prints, including May’s 2.1% m/m decline to an eight-month low, reflect sustained disinflation under Argentina’s fiscal surplus and tighter monetary stance, yet the 33.6% May YoY rate and upward revisions to 29–30.5% end-2026 forecasts anchor the 30.0–34.9% outcome at 33.5% implied probability. Competitive pressure from the <20% bucket at 30.9% arises from uncertainty over whether inertia, relative price realignments, and nascent recovery will slow the pace versus analyst consensus near 30%, with upcoming INDEC releases and BCRA policy signals as key swing factors for year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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