Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF), driven by the absence of any advancing impeachment proceedings in the Senate, which requires a two-thirds majority for removal—a high bar unmet amid the current political composition. Recent fact-checks, including one on April 17 debunking false claims of his medical suspension, underscore persistent misinformation from critics, while Moraes continues issuing rulings, such as the April 26 dismissal of military police officers in a decades-old case. Earlier 2026 controversies, like the "caso Master" scandals prompting calls for recusal in March, failed to trigger formal disciplinary action or resignation, reinforcing his entrenched position until mandatory retirement at age 75.