¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?
$5,350,331 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de abril
$4,295,851 Vol.
<1%
30 de junio
$103,028 Vol.
3%
31 de diciembre
$951,452 Vol.
11%
$5,350,331 Vol.
30 de abril
$4,295,851 Vol.
<1%
30 de junio
$103,028 Vol.
3%
31 de diciembre
$951,452 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's early April 2026 statements that he is "absolutely" considering U.S. withdrawal from NATO, amid allies' refusal to assist in the Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified trader scrutiny on alliance commitments. The White House confirmed deliberations on an exit, citing frustrations with burden-sharing, while signaling potential troop reductions in Europe like Germany. However, bipartisan congressional opposition looms large, with Section 1250A of the 2024 NDAA barring unilateral presidential withdrawal absent a two-thirds Senate vote or legislation. Under NATO's Article 13, any exit requires one-year notice, with no formal steps taken to date. Upcoming talks with NATO Secretary General Rutte and possible Senate holds underscore legal and diplomatic hurdles tempering trader expectations for near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's early April 2026 statements that he is "absolutely" considering U.S. withdrawal from NATO, amid allies' refusal to assist in the Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified trader scrutiny on alliance commitments. The White House confirmed deliberations on an exit, citing frustrations with burden-sharing, while signaling potential troop reductions in Europe like Germany. However, bipartisan congressional opposition looms large, with Section 1250A of the 2024 NDAA barring unilateral presidential withdrawal absent a two-thirds Senate vote or legislation. Under NATO's Article 13, any exit requires one-year notice, with no formal steps taken to date. Upcoming talks with NATO Secretary General Rutte and possible Senate holds underscore legal and diplomatic hurdles tempering trader expectations for near-term resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 30 2026
No new official US government or NATO announcements of withdrawal or denunciation;
market stabilizes at low probability of US withdrawal by June 30
Apr 27 2026
NATO considers ending annual summits to avoid tense encounters with President Trump, reflecting ongoing alliance strains but no formal US withdrawal moves, maintaining market
June 30 dips to 3%2%
NATO considers ending annual summits to avoid tense encounters with President Trump, reflecting ongoing alliance strains but no formal US withdrawal moves, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term exit
Apr 27 2026
Reuters article notes NATO is debating ending annual summits to avoid a tense clash with Trump, but no concrete move toward U.S.
withdrawal – Continued discussion without decisive action kept the probability stable at the low‑single‑digit level.
Apr 27 2026
NATO discusses ending its annual summit format to avoid a tense clash with President Trump, signalling reduced risk of a U.S. pull‑out
NATO discusses ending its annual summit format to avoid a tense clash with President Trump, signalling reduced risk of a U.S. pull‑out
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining options to punish NATO allies (e.g., suspending Spain) but explicitly does not include a U.S. withdrawal
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining options to punish NATO allies (e.g., suspending Spain) but explicitly does not include a U.S. withdrawal
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports on a leaked internal Pentagon email outlining punitive options against NATO allies like Spain for not supporting US military actions in Iran, but explicitly not
June 30 rises to 5%1%
Reuters reports on a leaked internal Pentagon email outlining punitive options against NATO allies like Spain for not supporting US military actions in Iran, but explicitly not recommending US withdrawal from NATO, which reassured markets
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining possible punitive steps (e.g., suspending Spain) but not an actual withdrawal – The email showed the administration was
June 30 dips to 3%1%
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining possible punitive steps (e.g., suspending Spain) but not an actual withdrawal – The email showed the administration was considering pressure tactics rather than a formal exit, cementing the lower
Apr 22 2026
Bipartisan legislation co‑sponsored by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (now SecState) amends the 2024 NDAA, requiring a two‑thirds Senate vote before any U.S.
June 30 dips to 3%2%
denunciation of NATO can be enacted
Apr 19 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte dismisses U.S.
June 30 dips to 4%1%
withdrawal speculation in interview with DW News – Rutte’s reassurance that the United States remains “committed” further reduced perceived risk.
Apr 19 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte publicly dismisses any U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit fears, stating the alliance remains “strong and united”
Apr 18 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte says he “does not see” a U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit from the alliance, downplaying Trump’s rhetoric
Apr 18 2026
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan warns that a U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit would be “destructive” for European security at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum – Turkey’s strong condemnation signaled that key NATO members were not expecting a U.S. pull‑out, pulling the
Apr 18 2026
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte states he does not foresee the US withdrawing from NATO, providing a counterbalance to withdrawal fears and contributing to a
June 30 drops to 4%10%
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte states he does not foresee the US withdrawing from NATO, providing a counterbalance to withdrawal fears and contributing to a
Apr 17 2026
Al Jazeera video shows President Donald Trump threatening to pull the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to back the US‑Israel war on Iran – The broadcast highlighted
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
Al Jazeera video shows President Donald Trump threatening to pull the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to back the US‑Israel war on Iran – The broadcast highlighted Trump’s renewed “leave NATO” rhetoric, prompting traders to
Apr 17 2026
President Donald Trump tells Al Jazeera he is “seriously considering” a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
withdrawal from NATO amid the Iran‑Israel conflict
Apr 17 2026
US President Donald Trump publicly threatens to withdraw from NATO over allies' refusal to support the US-Israel war on Iran, raising market speculation about a possible US exit
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
US President Donald Trump publicly threatens to withdraw from NATO over allies' refusal to support the US-Israel war on Iran, raising market speculation about a possible US exit from the alliance
Apr 8 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference affirming that any U.S.
December 31 drops to 10%6%
withdrawal would require a formal notice to the U.S. State Department and a one‑year waiting period, tempering expectations
Apr 1 2026
Trump tells Reuters he is “absolutely” considering a NATO withdrawal, promising a nation‑wide address later that day
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
Trump tells Reuters he is “absolutely” considering a NATO withdrawal, promising a nation‑wide address later that day
Apr 1 2026
President Trump threatens again to pull the U.S.
December 31 jumps to 16%11%
out of NATO over European inaction on the Hormuz crisis, reigniting market optimism
Mar 31 2026
Reuters publishes an analysis that the legal hurdles—2023 congressional restrictions on unilateral presidential action—make a Trump‑initiated withdrawal unlikely, prompting a
December 31 dips to 5%4%
Reuters publishes an analysis that the legal hurdles—2023 congressional restrictions on unilateral presidential action—make a Trump‑initiated withdrawal unlikely, prompting a
Jan 21 2026
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announces a bipartisan “NATO Review” hearing, signaling strong institutional resistance to any withdrawal and causing the(reporting of
December 31 jumps to 18%13%
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announces a bipartisan “NATO Review” hearing, signaling strong institutional resistance to any withdrawal and causing the(reporting of hearing)
Dec 22 2025
The House Republican Conference votes to advance Massie’s “NATO Act” to the floor, marking the first concrete legislative step toward a possible denunciation
December 31 drops to 8%5%
The House Republican Conference votes to advance Massie’s “NATO Act” to the floor, marking the first concrete legislative step toward a possible denunciation
Nov 19 2025
Trump reiterates his “disgust” with NATO in a televised address, warning that the U.S.
December 31 drops to 13%6%
may issue a formal withdrawal notice within a year
Oct 4 2025
Major poll released by Pew Research shows Republican support for NATO membership falls to a historic low of 38%, fueling speculation that a withdrawal could gain political
December 31 jumps to 19%6%
Major poll released by Pew Research shows Republican support for NATO membership falls to a historic low of 38%, fueling speculation that a withdrawal could gain political traction (source inferred from trend data)
Jul 23 2025
Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) introduces the “NATO Act,” a bill directing the President to deliver a formal notice of denunciation under Article 13, sparking debate in Congress and
December 31 dips to 13%3%
Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) introduces the “NATO Act,” a bill directing the President to deliver a formal notice of denunciation under Article 13, sparking debate in Congress and among NATO allies
Jun 24 2025
President Donald Trump tells reporters at the NATO summit in The Hague that he is “absolutely” considering taking the United States out of the alliance after European members
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
President Donald Trump tells reporters at the NATO summit in The Hague that he is “absolutely” considering taking the United States out of the alliance after European members failed to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's early April 2026 statements that he is "absolutely" considering U.S. withdrawal from NATO, amid allies' refusal to assist in the Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified trader scrutiny on alliance commitments. The White House confirmed deliberations on an exit, citing frustrations with burden-sharing, while signaling potential troop reductions in Europe like Germany. However, bipartisan congressional opposition looms large, with Section 1250A of the 2024 NDAA barring unilateral presidential withdrawal absent a two-thirds Senate vote or legislation. Under NATO's Article 13, any exit requires one-year notice, with no formal steps taken to date. Upcoming talks with NATO Secretary General Rutte and possible Senate holds underscore legal and diplomatic hurdles tempering trader expectations for near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's early April 2026 statements that he is "absolutely" considering U.S. withdrawal from NATO, amid allies' refusal to assist in the Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified trader scrutiny on alliance commitments. The White House confirmed deliberations on an exit, citing frustrations with burden-sharing, while signaling potential troop reductions in Europe like Germany. However, bipartisan congressional opposition looms large, with Section 1250A of the 2024 NDAA barring unilateral presidential withdrawal absent a two-thirds Senate vote or legislation. Under NATO's Article 13, any exit requires one-year notice, with no formal steps taken to date. Upcoming talks with NATO Secretary General Rutte and possible Senate holds underscore legal and diplomatic hurdles tempering trader expectations for near-term resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 30 2026
No new official US government or NATO announcements of withdrawal or denunciation;
market stabilizes at low probability of US withdrawal by June 30
Apr 27 2026
NATO considers ending annual summits to avoid tense encounters with President Trump, reflecting ongoing alliance strains but no formal US withdrawal moves, maintaining market
June 30 dips to 3%2%
NATO considers ending annual summits to avoid tense encounters with President Trump, reflecting ongoing alliance strains but no formal US withdrawal moves, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term exit
Apr 27 2026
Reuters article notes NATO is debating ending annual summits to avoid a tense clash with Trump, but no concrete move toward U.S.
withdrawal – Continued discussion without decisive action kept the probability stable at the low‑single‑digit level.
Apr 27 2026
NATO discusses ending its annual summit format to avoid a tense clash with President Trump, signalling reduced risk of a U.S. pull‑out
NATO discusses ending its annual summit format to avoid a tense clash with President Trump, signalling reduced risk of a U.S. pull‑out
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining options to punish NATO allies (e.g., suspending Spain) but explicitly does not include a U.S. withdrawal
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining options to punish NATO allies (e.g., suspending Spain) but explicitly does not include a U.S. withdrawal
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports on a leaked internal Pentagon email outlining punitive options against NATO allies like Spain for not supporting US military actions in Iran, but explicitly not
June 30 rises to 5%1%
Reuters reports on a leaked internal Pentagon email outlining punitive options against NATO allies like Spain for not supporting US military actions in Iran, but explicitly not recommending US withdrawal from NATO, which reassured markets
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining possible punitive steps (e.g., suspending Spain) but not an actual withdrawal – The email showed the administration was
June 30 dips to 3%1%
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining possible punitive steps (e.g., suspending Spain) but not an actual withdrawal – The email showed the administration was considering pressure tactics rather than a formal exit, cementing the lower
Apr 22 2026
Bipartisan legislation co‑sponsored by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (now SecState) amends the 2024 NDAA, requiring a two‑thirds Senate vote before any U.S.
June 30 dips to 3%2%
denunciation of NATO can be enacted
Apr 19 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte dismisses U.S.
June 30 dips to 4%1%
withdrawal speculation in interview with DW News – Rutte’s reassurance that the United States remains “committed” further reduced perceived risk.
Apr 19 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte publicly dismisses any U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit fears, stating the alliance remains “strong and united”
Apr 18 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte says he “does not see” a U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit from the alliance, downplaying Trump’s rhetoric
Apr 18 2026
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan warns that a U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit would be “destructive” for European security at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum – Turkey’s strong condemnation signaled that key NATO members were not expecting a U.S. pull‑out, pulling the
Apr 18 2026
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte states he does not foresee the US withdrawing from NATO, providing a counterbalance to withdrawal fears and contributing to a
June 30 drops to 4%10%
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte states he does not foresee the US withdrawing from NATO, providing a counterbalance to withdrawal fears and contributing to a
Apr 17 2026
Al Jazeera video shows President Donald Trump threatening to pull the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to back the US‑Israel war on Iran – The broadcast highlighted
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
Al Jazeera video shows President Donald Trump threatening to pull the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to back the US‑Israel war on Iran – The broadcast highlighted Trump’s renewed “leave NATO” rhetoric, prompting traders to
Apr 17 2026
President Donald Trump tells Al Jazeera he is “seriously considering” a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
withdrawal from NATO amid the Iran‑Israel conflict
Apr 17 2026
US President Donald Trump publicly threatens to withdraw from NATO over allies' refusal to support the US-Israel war on Iran, raising market speculation about a possible US exit
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
US President Donald Trump publicly threatens to withdraw from NATO over allies' refusal to support the US-Israel war on Iran, raising market speculation about a possible US exit from the alliance
Apr 8 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference affirming that any U.S.
December 31 drops to 10%6%
withdrawal would require a formal notice to the U.S. State Department and a one‑year waiting period, tempering expectations
Apr 1 2026
Trump tells Reuters he is “absolutely” considering a NATO withdrawal, promising a nation‑wide address later that day
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
Trump tells Reuters he is “absolutely” considering a NATO withdrawal, promising a nation‑wide address later that day
Apr 1 2026
President Trump threatens again to pull the U.S.
December 31 jumps to 16%11%
out of NATO over European inaction on the Hormuz crisis, reigniting market optimism
Mar 31 2026
Reuters publishes an analysis that the legal hurdles—2023 congressional restrictions on unilateral presidential action—make a Trump‑initiated withdrawal unlikely, prompting a
December 31 dips to 5%4%
Reuters publishes an analysis that the legal hurdles—2023 congressional restrictions on unilateral presidential action—make a Trump‑initiated withdrawal unlikely, prompting a
Jan 21 2026
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announces a bipartisan “NATO Review” hearing, signaling strong institutional resistance to any withdrawal and causing the(reporting of
December 31 jumps to 18%13%
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announces a bipartisan “NATO Review” hearing, signaling strong institutional resistance to any withdrawal and causing the(reporting of hearing)
Dec 22 2025
The House Republican Conference votes to advance Massie’s “NATO Act” to the floor, marking the first concrete legislative step toward a possible denunciation
December 31 drops to 8%5%
The House Republican Conference votes to advance Massie’s “NATO Act” to the floor, marking the first concrete legislative step toward a possible denunciation
Nov 19 2025
Trump reiterates his “disgust” with NATO in a televised address, warning that the U.S.
December 31 drops to 13%6%
may issue a formal withdrawal notice within a year
Oct 4 2025
Major poll released by Pew Research shows Republican support for NATO membership falls to a historic low of 38%, fueling speculation that a withdrawal could gain political
December 31 jumps to 19%6%
Major poll released by Pew Research shows Republican support for NATO membership falls to a historic low of 38%, fueling speculation that a withdrawal could gain political traction (source inferred from trend data)
Jul 23 2025
Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) introduces the “NATO Act,” a bill directing the President to deliver a formal notice of denunciation under Article 13, sparking debate in Congress and
December 31 dips to 13%3%
Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) introduces the “NATO Act,” a bill directing the President to deliver a formal notice of denunciation under Article 13, sparking debate in Congress and among NATO allies
Jun 24 2025
President Donald Trump tells reporters at the NATO summit in The Hague that he is “absolutely” considering taking the United States out of the alliance after European members
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
President Donald Trump tells reporters at the NATO summit in The Hague that he is “absolutely” considering taking the United States out of the alliance after European members failed to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 11%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 3%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 11¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" ha generado $5.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" es "31 de diciembre" con 11%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de junio" con 3%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $5.4 million operados en “¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 11¢ para "31 de diciembre" en el mercado "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 11% de que "31 de diciembre" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 11¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 89¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 69 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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