Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, reflecting de-escalation from January's heated rhetoric under President Trump, who ruled out military force at Davos and pivoted to diplomacy. Ongoing talks between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland—described as on a "good trajectory" as of mid-April—focus on expanding U.S. access to Arctic bases under the 1951 Defense Agreement, not sovereignty seizure or invasion. No recent troop deployments, ultimatums, or congressional authorizations signal action, amid NATO ally Denmark's firm sovereignty stance and domestic opposition bills blocking annexation funding. Legal barriers, alliance strains, and Trump's shifting foreign policy priorities further diminish invasion likelihood before year-end.