Amid escalating U.S.-Cuba tensions from President Trump's January executive order labeling Cuba a national security threat and enforcing an oil blockade that has deepened Havana's economic crisis, traders imply a 77.5% probability against invasion in 2026, viewing sanctions and diplomacy as preferred tools. Recent U.S. diplomatic visits to Havana in April outlined reform proposals in a "respectful" exchange per Cuban officials, signaling negotiation over force. Despite Pentagon contingency planning and Trump's rhetoric, a senior general stated in March the military is not preparing an invasion. The Senate's April 28 rejection of a Democratic war powers resolution preserves executive flexibility without triggering mobilization, amid high barriers like international opposition and competing priorities such as Iran.