Despite recent reports of Pentagon contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba—accelerated in mid-April amid Trump's January executive order deeming the island a national security threat—traders price "No" at 77.5%, reflecting skepticism of escalation to invasion. The Senate's April 28 rejection of a Democratic war powers resolution preserves presidential discretion without mandating force, highlighting partisan tensions but no concrete deployment orders. Cuba's deepening energy crisis from US oil blockades and sanctions has prompted defiant statements from Havana, yet historical US preference for economic coercion over direct intervention, absent acute threats like missile deployments, sustains low odds on a 2026 offensive to seize territory. Upcoming diplomatic signals or congressional votes could shift consensus.