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Geopolítica·Gaza

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

icon for Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?
Geopolítica·Gaza

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

2% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
2% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli naval forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla—comprising over 20 vessels carrying humanitarian aid and around 175 activists—in international waters near Crete on April 29, 2026, roughly 600 miles from Gaza, effectively halting its progress toward breaking Israel's longstanding naval blockade on the Gaza Strip. This marks the latest in a pattern of preemptive interceptions, with detained participants slated for disembarkation on the Greek coast per Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's announcement. Trader consensus at 97.7% for "No" reflects this decisive military action amid ongoing blockade enforcement, leaving slim odds for resumption or a new convoy reaching Gaza by May 31; only an unlikely release of vessels, diplomatic reversal, or fresh flotilla launch could shift the outcome.

A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,360
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli naval forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla—comprising over 20 vessels carrying humanitarian aid and around 175 activists—in international waters near Crete on April 29, 2026, roughly 600 miles from Gaza, effectively halting its progress toward breaking Israel's longstanding naval blockade on the Gaza Strip. This marks the latest in a pattern of preemptive interceptions, with detained participants slated for disembarkation on the Greek coast per Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's announcement. Trader consensus at 97.7% for "No" reflects this decisive military action amid ongoing blockade enforcement, leaving slim odds for resumption or a new convoy reaching Gaza by May 31; only an unlikely release of vessels, diplomatic reversal, or fresh flotilla launch could shift the outcome.

A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,360
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 2% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 2¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 2% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 20, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?" es 2% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 2% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.