Recent escalations in U.S.-Iran tensions, including fresh American strikes and Iran's June 11 announcement of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, have kept daily transits at multi-month lows, often in the single digits or zero. This sustained disruption—far below the pre-conflict average of 130–140 vessels—has elevated VLCC tanker rates to multi-decade highs, pushed Brent and WTI crude above $90 per barrel with persistent risk premiums, and triggered record war-risk insurance costs. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether any diplomatic breakthrough or naval escort arrangement materializes before month-end, as even modest de-escalation could rapidly restore traffic volumes. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing bilateral talks and real-time AIS data releases through June 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Los __ barcos transitarán por el Estrecho de Ormuz algún día antes del 30 de junio?
¿Los __ barcos transitarán por el Estrecho de Ormuz algún día antes del 30 de junio?
$322,044 Vol.
30 jun 2026
80+
16%
20+
55%
40+
38%
60+
26%
$322,044 Vol.
80+
$77,280 Vol.
16%
20+
$79,498 Vol.
55%
40+
$77,231 Vol.
38%
60+
$88,509 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent escalations in U.S.-Iran tensions, including fresh American strikes and Iran's June 11 announcement of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, have kept daily transits at multi-month lows, often in the single digits or zero. This sustained disruption—far below the pre-conflict average of 130–140 vessels—has elevated VLCC tanker rates to multi-decade highs, pushed Brent and WTI crude above $90 per barrel with persistent risk premiums, and triggered record war-risk insurance costs. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether any diplomatic breakthrough or naval escort arrangement materializes before month-end, as even modest de-escalation could rapidly restore traffic volumes. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing bilateral talks and real-time AIS data releases through June 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Volumen
$322,044Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent escalations in U.S.-Iran tensions, including fresh American strikes and Iran's June 11 announcement of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, have kept daily transits at multi-month lows, often in the single digits or zero. This sustained disruption—far below the pre-conflict average of 130–140 vessels—has elevated VLCC tanker rates to multi-decade highs, pushed Brent and WTI crude above $90 per barrel with persistent risk premiums, and triggered record war-risk insurance costs. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether any diplomatic breakthrough or naval escort arrangement materializes before month-end, as even modest de-escalation could rapidly restore traffic volumes. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing bilateral talks and real-time AIS data releases through June 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$322,044Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in U.S.-Iran tensions, including fresh American strikes and Iran's June 11 announcement of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, have kept daily transits at multi-month lows, often in the single digits or zero. This sustained disruption—far below the pre-conflict average of 130–140 vessels—has elevated VLCC tanker rates to multi-decade highs, pushed Brent and WTI crude above $90 per barrel with persistent risk premiums, and triggered record war-risk insurance costs. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether any diplomatic breakthrough or naval escort arrangement materializes before month-end, as even modest de-escalation could rapidly restore traffic volumes. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing bilateral talks and real-time AIS data releases through June 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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