Trader consensus prices an 82.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global surface air temperature record—July 2023 in Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by NOAA and Copernicus forecasts showing 2026 on track for one of the four warmest years since 1850, amplified by a likely El Niño onset (61% chance May-July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center). Despite lingering La Niña effects, January-March 2026 ranked as the fifth- or second-warmest for those months across datasets from NOAA, Copernicus C3S, and Berkeley Earth, underscoring a baseline anomaly exceeding 1.2°C above 20th-century averages amid ongoing anthropogenic warming. Key uncertainties include exact El Niño strength and aerosol influences, with monthly ERA5 updates and ENSO diagnostics expected to refine summer outlooks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
Sí
$134,938 Vol.
$134,938 Vol.
10 ene 2027
Sí
$134,938 Vol.
$134,938 Vol.
10 ene 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus prices an 82.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global surface air temperature record—July 2023 in Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by NOAA and Copernicus forecasts showing 2026 on track for one of the four warmest years since 1850, amplified by a likely El Niño onset (61% chance May-July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center). Despite lingering La Niña effects, January-March 2026 ranked as the fifth- or second-warmest for those months across datasets from NOAA, Copernicus C3S, and Berkeley Earth, underscoring a baseline anomaly exceeding 1.2°C above 20th-century averages amid ongoing anthropogenic warming. Key uncertainties include exact El Niño strength and aerosol influences, with monthly ERA5 updates and ENSO diagnostics expected to refine summer outlooks.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$134,938Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus prices an 82.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global surface air temperature record—July 2023 in Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by NOAA and Copernicus forecasts showing 2026 on track for one of the four warmest years since 1850, amplified by a likely El Niño onset (61% chance May-July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center). Despite lingering La Niña effects, January-March 2026 ranked as the fifth- or second-warmest for those months across datasets from NOAA, Copernicus C3S, and Berkeley Earth, underscoring a baseline anomaly exceeding 1.2°C above 20th-century averages amid ongoing anthropogenic warming. Key uncertainties include exact El Niño strength and aerosol influences, with monthly ERA5 updates and ENSO diagnostics expected to refine summer outlooks.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$134,938Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 82.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global surface air temperature record—July 2023 in Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by NOAA and Copernicus forecasts showing 2026 on track for one of the four warmest years since 1850, amplified by a likely El Niño onset (61% chance May-July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center). Despite lingering La Niña effects, January-March 2026 ranked as the fifth- or second-warmest for those months across datasets from NOAA, Copernicus C3S, and Berkeley Earth, underscoring a baseline anomaly exceeding 1.2°C above 20th-century averages amid ongoing anthropogenic warming. Key uncertainties include exact El Niño strength and aerosol influences, with monthly ERA5 updates and ENSO diagnostics expected to refine summer outlooks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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