The developing El Niño, now emerging in the equatorial Pacific with forecasts for strengthening through late 2026, serves as the main catalyst behind the 83.5% market-implied odds for a record monthly global temperature this year. Persistent anthropogenic warming has already placed 2023–2025 as the three warmest years on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, with 2025 anomalies reaching 1.17–1.44 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline despite La Niña cooling. Early 2026 monthly readings remain among the top five for their respective calendar months, and El Niño-driven sea-surface temperature rises typically elevate global means by 0.1–0.2 °C. NOAA and IRI outlooks indicate high confidence in this progression, with new monthly reports and ENSO updates expected to refine probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
Sí
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
10 ene 2027
Sí
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
10 ene 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The developing El Niño, now emerging in the equatorial Pacific with forecasts for strengthening through late 2026, serves as the main catalyst behind the 83.5% market-implied odds for a record monthly global temperature this year. Persistent anthropogenic warming has already placed 2023–2025 as the three warmest years on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, with 2025 anomalies reaching 1.17–1.44 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline despite La Niña cooling. Early 2026 monthly readings remain among the top five for their respective calendar months, and El Niño-driven sea-surface temperature rises typically elevate global means by 0.1–0.2 °C. NOAA and IRI outlooks indicate high confidence in this progression, with new monthly reports and ENSO updates expected to refine probabilities further.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$141,084Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The developing El Niño, now emerging in the equatorial Pacific with forecasts for strengthening through late 2026, serves as the main catalyst behind the 83.5% market-implied odds for a record monthly global temperature this year. Persistent anthropogenic warming has already placed 2023–2025 as the three warmest years on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, with 2025 anomalies reaching 1.17–1.44 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline despite La Niña cooling. Early 2026 monthly readings remain among the top five for their respective calendar months, and El Niño-driven sea-surface temperature rises typically elevate global means by 0.1–0.2 °C. NOAA and IRI outlooks indicate high confidence in this progression, with new monthly reports and ENSO updates expected to refine probabilities further.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$141,084Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The developing El Niño, now emerging in the equatorial Pacific with forecasts for strengthening through late 2026, serves as the main catalyst behind the 83.5% market-implied odds for a record monthly global temperature this year. Persistent anthropogenic warming has already placed 2023–2025 as the three warmest years on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, with 2025 anomalies reaching 1.17–1.44 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline despite La Niña cooling. Early 2026 monthly readings remain among the top five for their respective calendar months, and El Niño-driven sea-surface temperature rises typically elevate global means by 0.1–0.2 °C. NOAA and IRI outlooks indicate high confidence in this progression, with new monthly reports and ENSO updates expected to refine probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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