Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities now over two months into airstrikes and proxy clashes, trader consensus prices low odds on any US House member or Senator entering Iran by June 30, reflecting acute security risks and stalled diplomacy. Recent catalysts include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's April 30 congressional clashes over Pentagon operations, Iranian air defenses engaging targets near Tehran on April 23, and US naval buildups fueling invasion fears that have spiked oil prices. Strait of Hormuz blockades remain a flashpoint in failed talks, with hardliners dominant in Tehran; a diplomatic thaw or ceasefire breakthrough could shift probabilities, but ground entry barriers loom large absent de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$369,310 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Cualquier miembro de la Cámara de Representantes de EE. UU.
7%
Algún senador estadounidense
5%
Marco Rubio
3%
Jared Kushner
3%
Pete Hegseth
2%
Benjamín Netanyahu
2%
JD Vance
1%
Donald Trump
1%
$369,310 Vol.
Cualquier miembro de la Cámara de Representantes de EE. UU.
$78,553 Vol.
7%
Algún senador estadounidense
$28,390 Vol.
5%
Marco Rubio
$19,136 Vol.
3%
Jared Kushner
$15,540 Vol.
3%
Pete Hegseth
$91,969 Vol.
2%
Benjamín Netanyahu
$41,792 Vol.
2%
JD Vance
$27,470 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$66,460 Vol.
1%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities now over two months into airstrikes and proxy clashes, trader consensus prices low odds on any US House member or Senator entering Iran by June 30, reflecting acute security risks and stalled diplomacy. Recent catalysts include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's April 30 congressional clashes over Pentagon operations, Iranian air defenses engaging targets near Tehran on April 23, and US naval buildups fueling invasion fears that have spiked oil prices. Strait of Hormuz blockades remain a flashpoint in failed talks, with hardliners dominant in Tehran; a diplomatic thaw or ceasefire breakthrough could shift probabilities, but ground entry barriers loom large absent de-escalation.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volumen
$369,310Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities now over two months into airstrikes and proxy clashes, trader consensus prices low odds on any US House member or Senator entering Iran by June 30, reflecting acute security risks and stalled diplomacy. Recent catalysts include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's April 30 congressional clashes over Pentagon operations, Iranian air defenses engaging targets near Tehran on April 23, and US naval buildups fueling invasion fears that have spiked oil prices. Strait of Hormuz blockades remain a flashpoint in failed talks, with hardliners dominant in Tehran; a diplomatic thaw or ceasefire breakthrough could shift probabilities, but ground entry barriers loom large absent de-escalation.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$369,310Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities now over two months into airstrikes and proxy clashes, trader consensus prices low odds on any US House member or Senator entering Iran by June 30, reflecting acute security risks and stalled diplomacy. Recent catalysts include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's April 30 congressional clashes over Pentagon operations, Iranian air defenses engaging targets near Tehran on April 23, and US naval buildups fueling invasion fears that have spiked oil prices. Strait of Hormuz blockades remain a flashpoint in failed talks, with hardliners dominant in Tehran; a diplomatic thaw or ceasefire breakthrough could shift probabilities, but ground entry barriers loom large absent de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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