Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 54.5% implied probability for topping the AI model leaderboard by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance in Arena.ai benchmarks, including #1 in Code Arena with a massive lead over rivals and strong showings in Document Arena for long-context reasoning. Google trails at 30.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive April benchmark wins in multimodal tasks and GPQA, bolstered by its $40 billion investment in Anthropic compute. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lags at 7.5% amid slower iteration, while xAI's Grok-4.2 enters top ranks but remains unproven. Fast model release cycles and upcoming previews like potential Claude Mythos could shift odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 53%
Google 29%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 3.1%
$1,424,808 Vol.
$1,424,808 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
53%
29%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Z.ai
2%
Meta
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meituan
1%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
1%
Moonshot
1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 53%
Google 29%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 3.1%
$1,424,808 Vol.
$1,424,808 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$26,602 Vol.
53%
$17,225 Vol.
29%
OpenAI
$47,883 Vol.
8%
xAI
$12,360 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$199,823 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$412,077 Vol.
2%
Meta
$6,013 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$12,534 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$269,096 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$134,757 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$17,264 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,157 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$52,008 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$6,507 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,501 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 54.5% implied probability for topping the AI model leaderboard by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance in Arena.ai benchmarks, including #1 in Code Arena with a massive lead over rivals and strong showings in Document Arena for long-context reasoning. Google trails at 30.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive April benchmark wins in multimodal tasks and GPQA, bolstered by its $40 billion investment in Anthropic compute. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lags at 7.5% amid slower iteration, while xAI's Grok-4.2 enters top ranks but remains unproven. Fast model release cycles and upcoming previews like potential Claude Mythos could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$1,424,808Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 54.5% implied probability for topping the AI model leaderboard by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance in Arena.ai benchmarks, including #1 in Code Arena with a massive lead over rivals and strong showings in Document Arena for long-context reasoning. Google trails at 30.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive April benchmark wins in multimodal tasks and GPQA, bolstered by its $40 billion investment in Anthropic compute. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lags at 7.5% amid slower iteration, while xAI's Grok-4.2 enters top ranks but remains unproven. Fast model release cycles and upcoming previews like potential Claude Mythos could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,424,808Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 54.5% implied probability for topping the AI model leaderboard by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance in Arena.ai benchmarks, including #1 in Code Arena with a massive lead over rivals and strong showings in Document Arena for long-context reasoning. Google trails at 30.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive April benchmark wins in multimodal tasks and GPQA, bolstered by its $40 billion investment in Anthropic compute. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lags at 7.5% amid slower iteration, while xAI's Grok-4.2 enters top ranks but remains unproven. Fast model release cycles and upcoming previews like potential Claude Mythos could shift odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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