Anthropic commands a 73.5% implied probability of having the top AI model by end of May, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 release around April 16, which rocketed to the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a leading 1505 Elo score—surpassing rivals by 30–130 points in coding, math, and agentic tasks. This frontier large language model solidified trader consensus on Anthropic's competitive edge amid rapid iteration cycles. Google trails at 22.5% thanks to strong Gemini 3.1 Pro and open Gemma 4 models, plus recent teases of next-gen upgrades, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4/5.5 lags in overall Arena rankings despite context benchmark gains. Watch for pre-May releases from Google I/O or OpenAI, as leaderboard shifts could swing the closely watched resolution source.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 74%
Google 23%
OpenAI 2.8%
xAI <1%
$2,459,321 Vol.
$2,459,321 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
74%
23%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 74%
Google 23%
OpenAI 2.8%
xAI <1%
$2,459,321 Vol.
$2,459,321 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
$202,417 Vol.
74%
$168,897 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$262,448 Vol.
3%
xAI
$187,063 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$148,388 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$151,237 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$159,419 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$181,181 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$155,893 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$160,342 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$126,715 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$145,998 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$119,811 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$136,364 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$153,348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 73.5% implied probability of having the top AI model by end of May, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 release around April 16, which rocketed to the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a leading 1505 Elo score—surpassing rivals by 30–130 points in coding, math, and agentic tasks. This frontier large language model solidified trader consensus on Anthropic's competitive edge amid rapid iteration cycles. Google trails at 22.5% thanks to strong Gemini 3.1 Pro and open Gemma 4 models, plus recent teases of next-gen upgrades, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4/5.5 lags in overall Arena rankings despite context benchmark gains. Watch for pre-May releases from Google I/O or OpenAI, as leaderboard shifts could swing the closely watched resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volumen
$2,459,321Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 73.5% implied probability of having the top AI model by end of May, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 release around April 16, which rocketed to the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a leading 1505 Elo score—surpassing rivals by 30–130 points in coding, math, and agentic tasks. This frontier large language model solidified trader consensus on Anthropic's competitive edge amid rapid iteration cycles. Google trails at 22.5% thanks to strong Gemini 3.1 Pro and open Gemma 4 models, plus recent teases of next-gen upgrades, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4/5.5 lags in overall Arena rankings despite context benchmark gains. Watch for pre-May releases from Google I/O or OpenAI, as leaderboard shifts could swing the closely watched resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,459,321Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands a 73.5% implied probability of having the top AI model by end of May, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 release around April 16, which rocketed to the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a leading 1505 Elo score—surpassing rivals by 30–130 points in coding, math, and agentic tasks. This frontier large language model solidified trader consensus on Anthropic's competitive edge amid rapid iteration cycles. Google trails at 22.5% thanks to strong Gemini 3.1 Pro and open Gemma 4 models, plus recent teases of next-gen upgrades, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4/5.5 lags in overall Arena rankings despite context benchmark gains. Watch for pre-May releases from Google I/O or OpenAI, as leaderboard shifts could swing the closely watched resolution source.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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