President Trump's ongoing Iran policy dominates recent Truth Social activity, with posts on May 12 announcing a ceasefire extension and sharing AI-generated war images, driving 45% implied probability on "Ceasefire" as traders weigh escalation risks amid negotiations. ICE leads at 60% following reports of intensified deportation operations targeting undocumented immigrants, aligning with administration priorities. UFC sits at 55%, reflecting Trump's consistent promotion of mixed martial arts events, while football odds at 38% tie to his May 11 remarks on college sports. His Beijing state visit with Xi Jinping, launched May 13 for talks on Iran, trade, and Taiwan through May 15, positions foreign policy posts as key catalysts before the May 17 close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTrust
45%
Game
45%
Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire
52%
King
36%
ICE
47%
No cards / All the cards
18%
Epstein
14%
Baby
39%
UFC
43%
Coal
19%
Crypto / Bitcoin
21%
Virus
28%
World Cup
26%
Football
35%
Brazil
20%
$6,626 Vol.
Trust
45%
Game
45%
Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire
52%
King
36%
ICE
47%
No cards / All the cards
18%
Epstein
14%
Baby
39%
UFC
43%
Coal
19%
Crypto / Bitcoin
21%
Virus
28%
World Cup
26%
Football
35%
Brazil
20%
For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.
Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)
Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.
Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump
Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Mercado abierto: May 9, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.
Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)
Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.
Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump
Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's ongoing Iran policy dominates recent Truth Social activity, with posts on May 12 announcing a ceasefire extension and sharing AI-generated war images, driving 45% implied probability on "Ceasefire" as traders weigh escalation risks amid negotiations. ICE leads at 60% following reports of intensified deportation operations targeting undocumented immigrants, aligning with administration priorities. UFC sits at 55%, reflecting Trump's consistent promotion of mixed martial arts events, while football odds at 38% tie to his May 11 remarks on college sports. His Beijing state visit with Xi Jinping, launched May 13 for talks on Iran, trade, and Taiwan through May 15, positions foreign policy posts as key catalysts before the May 17 close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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