Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Elon Musk's X posts from May 15-22, 2026, most heavily in the 120-139 range at 18.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 140-159 (16.5%) and 100-119 (15.5%), reflecting his recent weekly average of around 23 posts per day from the resolved May 1-8 market (164 total) tempered by a mid-period slowdown in May 5-12 to roughly 13 daily. This tight clustering underscores volatile posting patterns driven by viral cultural firestorms—like Musk's backlash against Christopher Nolan's Odyssey casting choices and Oscars diversity criteria—versus quieter business updates on Starlink endorsements from MrBeast. Absent major catalysts such as SpaceX launches or political headlines, key swing factors include weekend lulls and spontaneous social media engagements, with daily trackers like xtracker.polymarket.com offering real-time signals for position adjustments ahead of the May 22 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado120-139 18%
140-159 17%
100-119 16%
160-179 12%
$528,058 Vol.
$528,058 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
3%
80-99
8%
100-119
16%
120-139
18%
140-159
17%
160-179
12%
180-199
9%
200-219
5%
220-239
4%
240-259
3%
260-279
2%
280-299
1%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
120-139 18%
140-159 17%
100-119 16%
160-179 12%
$528,058 Vol.
$528,058 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
3%
80-99
8%
100-119
16%
120-139
18%
140-159
17%
160-179
12%
180-199
9%
200-219
5%
220-239
4%
240-259
3%
260-279
2%
280-299
1%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Elon Musk's X posts from May 15-22, 2026, most heavily in the 120-139 range at 18.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 140-159 (16.5%) and 100-119 (15.5%), reflecting his recent weekly average of around 23 posts per day from the resolved May 1-8 market (164 total) tempered by a mid-period slowdown in May 5-12 to roughly 13 daily. This tight clustering underscores volatile posting patterns driven by viral cultural firestorms—like Musk's backlash against Christopher Nolan's Odyssey casting choices and Oscars diversity criteria—versus quieter business updates on Starlink endorsements from MrBeast. Absent major catalysts such as SpaceX launches or political headlines, key swing factors include weekend lulls and spontaneous social media engagements, with daily trackers like xtracker.polymarket.com offering real-time signals for position adjustments ahead of the May 22 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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