Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed around April 11-12 amid disputes over nuclear enrichment limits, Strait of Hormuz access, and fragile ceasefire terms, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and heightened tensions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed excessive US demands for the failure during a April 27 meeting with President Putin in Russia to bolster bilateral ties, while backchannel diplomacy via Pakistan and Oman persists. Reports indicate Washington has proposed new negotiations, with Tehran reviewing options ahead of potential truce expiration; no confirmed second round is scheduled, leaving resolution uncertain amid mutual de-escalation incentives and regional mediation efforts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS Treasury sanctions six Chinese companies linked to Iran
The imposition of new sanctions on Chinese firms connected to Iran reinforced the US’s pressure campaign, effectively closing off diplomatic avenues before the market’s resolution.
No new direct diplomatic meetings announced or reported;
May 5 dips to 7%2%
market confidence in a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5 falls to 7%
Iran tightens control over the Strait of Hormuz despite US claims of openness, maintaining a chokehold that complicates diplomatic progress and contributing to market drop to 23%
May 15 drops to 23%7%
Iran tightens control over the Strait of Hormuz despite US claims of openness, maintaining a chokehold that complicates diplomatic progress and contributing to market drop to 23%
Trump warns Iran to “get smart” as US plans extended port blockade
April 30 dips to 1%2%
Trump’s public warning and continuation of the naval blockade signaled hardened US policy and diminished prospects for a diplomatic meeting by the deadline.
No official or credible reports of any in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting; market
April 29 dips to 0%1%
No official or credible reports of any in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting; market
Reports emerged that U.S. negotiators’ planned travel to Islamabad for further talks was canceled due to Tehran pulling back or setting new conditions, indicating stalled
May 31 drops to 43%7%
Reports emerged that U.S. negotiators’ planned travel to Islamabad for further talks was canceled due to Tehran pulling back or setting new conditions, indicating stalled diplomacy and increasing uncertainty
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported Iran had amassed a record amount of military-grade enriched uranium, raising concerns and dampening market confidence in
May 31 dips to 41%2%
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported Iran had amassed a record amount of military-grade enriched uranium, raising concerns and dampening market confidence in imminent diplomatic breakthroughs
New U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear research and ballistic missile program supporters were imposed, increasing pressure on Iran and complicating negotiations
May 31 jumps to 47%6%
New U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear research and ballistic missile program supporters were imposed, increasing pressure on Iran and complicating negotiations
Al Jazeera confirmed that Trump’s Situation‑Room meeting focused on the Iranian proposal but did not include any plan for a US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting, driving the final drop to
May 5 drops to 9%9%
Al Jazeera confirmed that Trump’s Situation‑Room meeting focused on the Iranian proposal but did not include any plan for a US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting, driving the final drop to 9% Yes
President Trump discusses Iran’s new proposal with top national‑security aides, signalling U.S.
June 30 drops to 71%11%
willingness to negotiate but also warning of a possible naval blockade, which tempers optimism
Reuters reports that Iran’s top diplomat is traveling to Pakistan for cease‑fire talks, but no concrete meeting date is set, causing the market to retreat toward the lower‑70s
June 30 dips to 67%4%
Reuters reports that Iran’s top diplomat is traveling to Pakistan for cease‑fire talks, but no concrete meeting date is set, causing the market to retreat toward the lower‑70s
Reports indicate US considering prolonging blockade on Iran and urging Tehran to reach a deal, but no direct meeting scheduled
May 5 drops to 9%9%
Reports indicate US considering prolonging blockade on Iran and urging Tehran to reach a deal, but no direct meeting scheduled
The Soufan Center notes the second cancellation of the US delegation to Islamabad within a week, with Iran pulling back or setting new conditions, cementing market belief that a
May 5 dips to 9%1%
The Soufan Center notes the second cancellation of the US delegation to Islamabad within a week, with Iran pulling back or setting new conditions, cementing market belief that a May 5 diplomatic meeting will not occur
The Washington Post reported Iran’s latest proposal split Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, effectively ruling out a direct US‑Iran summit before May 5, and the
May 5 drops to 18%7%
The Washington Post reported Iran’s latest proposal split Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, effectively ruling out a direct US‑Iran summit before May 5, and the market fell to 18%
Iran’s latest diplomatic proposal was publicly outlined, including setting aside nuclear discussions until the war ends and disputes over Gulf shipping are resolved;
May 31 drops to 50%14%
however, the Trump administration signaled rejection citing unresolved nuclear issues
Trump administration signals rejection of Iran’s latest proposal, citing incomplete resolution of nuclear issues, further dampening prospects for a meeting
Trump administration signals rejection of Iran’s latest proposal, citing incomplete resolution of nuclear issues, further dampening prospects for a meeting
Live‑blog updates note that U.S.
June 30 jumps to 82%6%
and Iranian delegations are shuttling to Pakistan for a second round of cease‑fire talks, keeping hopes of an in‑person meeting alive
US reviews Iranian proposal delivered via Pakistan;
April 29 drops to 1%5%
no in-person meeting planned soon; Islamabad reopens after lockdown for anticipated talks that never happened
Al Jazeera and the Washington Post detail Iran’s proposal to separate Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, while US officials remain non‑committal, signaling no
May 5 drops to 10%8%
Al Jazeera and the Washington Post detail Iran’s proposal to separate Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, while US officials remain non‑committal, signaling no imminent in‑person meeting
US espionage agencies monitor Iran’s reaction amid stalled talks
April 30 drops to 3%10%
Reports of US intelligence closely watching Iran’s response to the diplomatic impasse underscored the stalled state of negotiations and ongoing tensions.
Heightened rhetoric and linked Israel-Hezbollah tensions increase regional instability, further reducing market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by May 15
May 15 drops to 30%9%
Heightened rhetoric and linked Israel-Hezbollah tensions increase regional instability, further reducing market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by May 15
Pakistan lifts security lockdown amid no immediate US-Iran talks scheduled, indicating stalled mediation efforts and no imminent diplomatic meeting
May 15 drops to 39%6%
Pakistan lifts security lockdown amid no immediate US-Iran talks scheduled, indicating stalled mediation efforts and no imminent diplomatic meeting
Iran’s foreign minister visits Moscow and Oman but skips any direct US engagement;
May 5 dips to 25%3%
NPR highlights the absence of any US‑Iran face‑to‑face talks amid rising tensions
The Guardian reports Trump’s statement that cancelling talks does not necessarily mean a return to fighting, but the lack of a concrete meeting date fuels speculation that a May 5
May 5 drops to 18%7%
The Guardian reports Trump’s statement that cancelling talks does not necessarily mean a return to fighting, but the lack of a concrete meeting date fuels speculation that a May 5 summit is unlikely
Reports emerge of US government sending a strongly worded message to Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders, reflecting tensions and complicating diplomatic environment
May 5 dips to 27%4%
Reports emerge of US government sending a strongly worded message to Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders, reflecting tensions and complicating diplomatic environment
Analysis highlights deadlock in US-Iran diplomacy despite ongoing indirect talks, with no immediate breakthrough expected
May 5 rises to 31%4%
Analysis highlights deadlock in US-Iran diplomacy despite ongoing indirect talks, with no immediate breakthrough expected
Iran’s Araghchi meets Russian President Putin, emphasizing strategic alliances amid stalled US talks;
April 29 drops to 6%5%
no face-to-face US-Iran meeting occurs
U.S. President Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal to resolve the war with Tehran with his top national security aides, signaling potential diplomatic progress despite the
May 31 jumps to 61%6%
U.S. President Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal to resolve the war with Tehran with his top national security aides, signaling potential diplomatic progress despite the ongoing stalemate and regional tensions
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the war and ongoing diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan, highlighting continued
May 31 rises to 64%3%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the war and ongoing diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan, highlighting continued behind-the-scenes negotiations
Iran unveils a new war‑ending proposal that postpones nuclear talks until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, prompting optimism that a diplomatic meeting could be arranged before
June 30 surges to 73%16%
Iran unveils a new war‑ending proposal that postpones nuclear talks until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, prompting optimism that a diplomatic meeting could be arranged before June 30
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in St.
June 30 rises to 76%3%
Petersburg, emphasizing a Pakistan‑mediated peace process and hinting at a possible U.S.–Iran face‑to‑face summit
Reuters noted President Trump discussed Iran’s new “Hormuz‑first” proposal with his security team, which postponed nuclear talks and offered no in‑person US‑Iran meeting, sending
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Reuters noted President Trump discussed Iran’s new “Hormuz‑first” proposal with his security team, which postponed nuclear talks and offered no in‑person US‑Iran meeting, sending the
NPR highlighted that despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, there was “no sign of a meeting between Washington and Tehran,” further depressing odds to 25%
May 5 dips to 25%3%
NPR highlighted that despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, there was “no sign of a meeting between Washington and Tehran,” further depressing odds to 25%
Al Jazeera notes that, despite “room for progress,” both sides remain steadfast on core demands, and Trump’s cancellation is interpreted as a sign that talks have stalled, further
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Al Jazeera notes that, despite “room for progress,” both sides remain steadfast on core demands, and Trump’s cancellation is interpreted as a sign that talks have stalled, further eroding market confidence
Trump states Iran sent a "much better" offer shortly after cancellation of US envoys’ trip but deems it "not enough," indicating stalled progress
May 5 jumps to 37%7%
Trump states Iran sent a "much better" offer shortly after cancellation of US envoys’ trip but deems it "not enough," indicating stalled progress
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticizes Iran's latest diplomatic submission as insufficient, signaling US skepticism about Iran's willingness to negotiate seriously
May 15 dips to 45%1%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticizes Iran's latest diplomatic submission as insufficient, signaling US skepticism about Iran's willingness to negotiate seriously
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Russian President Putin in Saint Petersburg, blaming the US for the failure of Pakistan talks and emphasizing regional alliances over
May 15 drops to 46%9%
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Russian President Putin in Saint Petersburg, blaming the US for the failure of Pakistan talks and emphasizing regional alliances over US negotiations
CNN reported that U.S. officials said a second round of US‑Iran talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” reinforcing market doubts and pushing odds down to 30%
May 5 drops to 30%7%
CNN reported that U.S. officials said a second round of US‑Iran talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” reinforcing market doubts and pushing odds down to 30%
Iran sends a “much better” offer after US cancellation but still insufficient
April 30 drops to 13%5%
Iran submitted an improved proposal shortly after the US cancellation, but Trump rejected it as inadequate, maintaining low market confidence in a meeting.
Araghchi meets Omani Sultan and Pakistani mediators discussing conditions including lifting US blockade;
April 29 dips to 11%1%
Trump says Iran’s new offer is “not enough,” talks remain stalled
Iran denies any direct meeting with US planned;
April 29 plunges to 11%51%
Araghchi leaves Pakistan; Trump cancels US envoys’ planned travel to Islamabad, signaling breakdown in direct talks
Iranian state media reported that Araghchi arrived in Islamabad but would convey Iran’s position through Pakistani officials rather than meet US envoys, causing a sharp drop to
May 5 plunges to 37%34%
Iranian state media reported that Araghchi arrived in Islamabad but would convey Iran’s position through Pakistani officials rather than meet US envoys, causing a sharp drop to 37% Yes
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for meetings with Pakistani leadership, potentially paving way for talks, but Iran denies seeking US talks and rejects
May 15 jumps to 52%5%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for meetings with Pakistani leadership, potentially paving way for talks, but Iran denies seeking US talks and rejects US demands as excessive
US President Trump cancels planned trip of envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran, citing Iran’s unchanged negotiating positions and internal
May 5 plunges to 33%42%
US President Trump cancels planned trip of envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran, citing Iran’s unchanged negotiating positions and internal confusion in Iran
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings, with Iran stating no direct US-Iran meeting is scheduled and positions will be conveyed through Pakistan
May 5 dips to 30%3%
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings, with Iran stating no direct US-Iran meeting is scheduled and positions will be conveyed through Pakistan
Reuters confirms Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says no US‑Iran meeting is planned and that the US delegation’s trip was cancelled, reinforcing the diplomatic dead‑lock
May 5 drops to 30%11%
Reuters confirms Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says no US‑Iran meeting is planned and that the US delegation’s trip was cancelled, reinforcing the diplomatic dead‑lock
President Trump cancels US envoys’ trip to Pakistan citing inadequate Iranian offer
April 30 plunges to 18%40%
Trump abruptly canceled the planned US delegation visit to Pakistan after receiving an Iranian proposal he deemed insufficient, marking a major setback for diplomacy and triggering a steep market drop.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visits Pakistan for mediation talks
April 30 jumps to 52%7%
Araghchi’s diplomatic tour to Pakistan and Oman raised hopes for resumed negotiations, causing a temporary.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Witkoff and Kushner would head to Pakistan “to resume negotiations,” briefly reviving optimism and lifting the
May 5 surges to 71%16%
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Witkoff and Kushner would head to Pakistan “to resume negotiations,” briefly reviving optimism and lifting the
NPR reports that the US “pulls out of peace talks” with Iran, with Trump announcing the cancellation of the Islamabad trip and stating Iran’s offer was “not enough”
May 5 drops to 41%14%
NPR reports that the US “pulls out of peace talks” with Iran, with Trump announcing the cancellation of the Islamabad trip and stating Iran’s offer was “not enough”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani mediators;
April 29 surges to 55%19%
US envoys Witkoff and Kushner prepare to join, raising hopes for talks
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presents a comprehensive peace proposal to Pakistan aiming for a permanent ceasefire but expresses reservations about US commitment amid
May 15 surges to 75%25%
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presents a comprehensive peace proposal to Pakistan aiming for a permanent ceasefire but expresses reservations about US commitment amid ongoing military tensions
US President Trump cancels envoy talks with Iran in Pakistan, asserting Washington holds the strategic advantage and insisting Tehran must initiate contact directly, signaling a
May 15 plunges to 47%28%
US President Trump cancels envoy talks with Iran in Pakistan, asserting Washington holds the strategic advantage and insisting Tehran must initiate contact directly, signaling a diplomatic shift and reducing chances of near-term meetings
US-Iran negotiations remain unlikely as the IRGC dominates Iranian policy and resists compromise;
May 15 plunges to 47%28%
Trump cancels planned talks involving US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reflecting diplomatic deadlock
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani officials as a mediator, raising hopes for indirect diplomatic engagement
May 5 surges to 68%28%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani officials as a mediator, raising hopes for indirect diplomatic engagement
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings with senior Pakistani officials, confirming no direct US‑Iran talks were scheduled and that Iran would
May 5 dips to 55%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings with senior Pakistani officials, confirming no direct US‑Iran talks were scheduled and that Iran would convey its positions via Pakistan
Reports emerge of internal Iranian regime divisions and constraints placed on negotiators, undermining prospects for direct talks
April 29 plunges to 36%22%
Reports emerge of internal Iranian regime divisions and constraints placed on negotiators, undermining prospects for direct talks
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei posted on X that no US‑Iran meeting was planned in Pakistan, signalling a setback and pulling the
May 5 plunges to 55%22%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei posted on X that no US‑Iran meeting was planned in Pakistan, signalling a setback and pulling the
US officials give Iran a 3-5 day ultimatum to resolve internal disputes before resuming attacks, indicating pressure but no direct meeting
April 29 surges to 58%16%
US officials give Iran a 3-5 day ultimatum to resolve internal disputes before resuming attacks, indicating pressure but no direct meeting
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were scheduled to travel to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran, prompting the
May 5 rises to 77%2%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were scheduled to travel to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran, prompting the
Internal Iranian regime infighting and canceled talks cause market drop
April 30 plunges to 45%49%
The cancellation of expected talks due to regime infighting and IRGC opposition to compromise led to a sharp market decline, reflecting skepticism about Iran’s negotiating stance.
US President Donald Trump cancels the planned visit of his top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, citing “excessive travel time” and Iran’s unchanged negotiating
May 5 plunges to 59%16%
US President Donald Trump cancels the planned visit of his top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, citing “excessive travel time” and Iran’s unchanged negotiating stance
US-Iran diplomatic talks remain stalled after inconclusive first-round negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, with no agreement on key issues like the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear
May 15 drops to 67%12%
US-Iran diplomatic talks remain stalled after inconclusive first-round negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, with no agreement on key issues like the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear curbs, or sanctions relief; President Trump cancels a planned second round of talks citing strong US leverage
US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to continue, signaling some hope for talks but no confirmed meeting yet
April 29 dips to 42%4%
US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to continue, signaling some hope for talks but no confirmed meeting yet
Temporary truce holds but diplomatic talks remain stalled
April 30 jumps to 94%11%
A fragile ceasefire and ongoing diplomatic outreach, including meetings mediated by Pakistan and Oman, briefly boosted market confidence in a possible meeting.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that technical teams would meet in Vienna with IAEA experts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing the market up
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that technical teams would meet in Vienna with IAEA experts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing the market up to 75% Yes
US President Trump agrees to extend ceasefire with Iran until Iran submits a proposal for talks, signaling ongoing but uncertain diplomatic efforts
May 5 plunges to 59%16%
US President Trump agrees to extend ceasefire with Iran until Iran submits a proposal for talks, signaling ongoing but uncertain diplomatic efforts
Iran’s IRGC sidelines civilian officials, undermining negotiation authority
April 30 drops to 83%5%
Reports revealed that Iran’s IRGC had sidelined civilian negotiators, limiting the Iranian team’s ability to make independent decisions, contributing to inflexibility and dampening hopes for imminent talks.
US military announces blockade of Iranian ports after Islamabad peace talks collapse
April 30 jumps to 70%10%
The US Navy began blockading Iranian ports following failed peace talks in Islamabad, signaling increased tensions but also the first direct US-Iran engagement in years, initially raising market optimism for a diplomatic meeting.
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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