Trader consensus implies a 34% probability of a qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting between US and Cuban officials by May 31, driven by mid-April Havana talks where a senior US delegation pressed for reforms amid Cuba's deepening economic crisis and US-imposed energy blockade following the 2026 Maduro capture—the first such high-level visits since 2016. However, these exchanges, publicly confirmed by both governments as "respectful," occurred around or before the market's April 16 launch, disqualifying them per resolution rules requiring post-open, deliberate negotiations on bilateral relations acknowledged by credible media. No further summits or official engagements have been scheduled under Secretary of State Marco Rubio's foreign policy push, sustaining uncertainty despite ongoing sanctions pressures and humanitarian concerns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?
$51,231 Vol.
31 may 2026
April 30
1%
May 31
33%
$51,231 Vol.
April 30
$27,371 Vol.
1%
May 31
$23,860 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 34% probability of a qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting between US and Cuban officials by May 31, driven by mid-April Havana talks where a senior US delegation pressed for reforms amid Cuba's deepening economic crisis and US-imposed energy blockade following the 2026 Maduro capture—the first such high-level visits since 2016. However, these exchanges, publicly confirmed by both governments as "respectful," occurred around or before the market's April 16 launch, disqualifying them per resolution rules requiring post-open, deliberate negotiations on bilateral relations acknowledged by credible media. No further summits or official engagements have been scheduled under Secretary of State Marco Rubio's foreign policy push, sustaining uncertainty despite ongoing sanctions pressures and humanitarian concerns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$51,231Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 34% probability of a qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting between US and Cuban officials by May 31, driven by mid-April Havana talks where a senior US delegation pressed for reforms amid Cuba's deepening economic crisis and US-imposed energy blockade following the 2026 Maduro capture—the first such high-level visits since 2016. However, these exchanges, publicly confirmed by both governments as "respectful," occurred around or before the market's April 16 launch, disqualifying them per resolution rules requiring post-open, deliberate negotiations on bilateral relations acknowledged by credible media. No further summits or official engagements have been scheduled under Secretary of State Marco Rubio's foreign policy push, sustaining uncertainty despite ongoing sanctions pressures and humanitarian concerns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$51,231Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 34% probability of a qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting between US and Cuban officials by May 31, driven by mid-April Havana talks where a senior US delegation pressed for reforms amid Cuba's deepening economic crisis and US-imposed energy blockade following the 2026 Maduro capture—the first such high-level visits since 2016. However, these exchanges, publicly confirmed by both governments as "respectful," occurred around or before the market's April 16 launch, disqualifying them per resolution rules requiring post-open, deliberate negotiations on bilateral relations acknowledged by credible media. No further summits or official engagements have been scheduled under Secretary of State Marco Rubio's foreign policy push, sustaining uncertainty despite ongoing sanctions pressures and humanitarian concerns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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