Trader consensus prices a 96.3% implied probability on "No" for US default on debt by 2027, anchored by Congress's unbroken historical record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling over 100 times since 1917 to honor Treasury obligations, avoiding the global financial catastrophe a default would unleash. Current Treasury projections and CRFB estimates place the next X-date in 2027, providing ample runway beyond the November 2026 midterms via extraordinary measures, with no recent brinkmanship amid unrelated partial government shutdowns over appropriations in early 2026. CBO's February outlook flags escalating deficits to $1.9 trillion and record interest costs, yet stable fiscal management persists. Rare shifts could stem from post-midterm partisan deadlock prolonging a shutdown past extraordinary measures, though precedents and incentives strongly favor resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
Sí
$14,788 Vol.
$14,788 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$14,788 Vol.
$14,788 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a 96.3% implied probability on "No" for US default on debt by 2027, anchored by Congress's unbroken historical record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling over 100 times since 1917 to honor Treasury obligations, avoiding the global financial catastrophe a default would unleash. Current Treasury projections and CRFB estimates place the next X-date in 2027, providing ample runway beyond the November 2026 midterms via extraordinary measures, with no recent brinkmanship amid unrelated partial government shutdowns over appropriations in early 2026. CBO's February outlook flags escalating deficits to $1.9 trillion and record interest costs, yet stable fiscal management persists. Rare shifts could stem from post-midterm partisan deadlock prolonging a shutdown past extraordinary measures, though precedents and incentives strongly favor resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volumen
$14,788Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a 96.3% implied probability on "No" for US default on debt by 2027, anchored by Congress's unbroken historical record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling over 100 times since 1917 to honor Treasury obligations, avoiding the global financial catastrophe a default would unleash. Current Treasury projections and CRFB estimates place the next X-date in 2027, providing ample runway beyond the November 2026 midterms via extraordinary measures, with no recent brinkmanship amid unrelated partial government shutdowns over appropriations in early 2026. CBO's February outlook flags escalating deficits to $1.9 trillion and record interest costs, yet stable fiscal management persists. Rare shifts could stem from post-midterm partisan deadlock prolonging a shutdown past extraordinary measures, though precedents and incentives strongly favor resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$14,788Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 96.3% implied probability on "No" for US default on debt by 2027, anchored by Congress's unbroken historical record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling over 100 times since 1917 to honor Treasury obligations, avoiding the global financial catastrophe a default would unleash. Current Treasury projections and CRFB estimates place the next X-date in 2027, providing ample runway beyond the November 2026 midterms via extraordinary measures, with no recent brinkmanship amid unrelated partial government shutdowns over appropriations in early 2026. CBO's February outlook flags escalating deficits to $1.9 trillion and record interest costs, yet stable fiscal management persists. Rare shifts could stem from post-midterm partisan deadlock prolonging a shutdown past extraordinary measures, though precedents and incentives strongly favor resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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