38 state attorneys‑general file a brief opposing the CFTC’s exclusive‑jurisdiction claim while the CFTC files its own amicus, deepening the circuit‑split narrative and pulling

December 31 drops to 27%12%

38 state attorneys‑general file a brief opposing the CFTC’s exclusive‑jurisdiction claim while the CFTC files its own amicus, deepening the circuit‑split narrative and pulling “Yes” back toward the low‑30s

Supreme Court allows Texas congressional map to stand, no sports contract case certiorari

July 31 drops to 5%11%

The Court’s focus on redistricting and voting rights cases, with no sports contract case acceptance, pushed the market to near zero.

CFTC and DOJ sue New York to block state gambling enforcement against CFTC‑registered prediction‑market platforms, signaling a coordinated federal push against state actions

December 31 drops to 33%5%

CFTC and DOJ sue New York to block state gambling enforcement against CFTC‑registered prediction‑market platforms, signaling a coordinated federal push against state actions

Fortune reports that the appellate split could soon force the Supreme Court to take the case, briefly reviving optimism and lifting the

Fortune reports that the appellate split could soon force the Supreme Court to take the case, briefly reviving optimism and lifting the

Fortune article notes that a Nevada appellate panel is hearing a rival case that could produce an adverse ruling for Kalshi, reviving concerns of a split and sending “Yes” sharply

December 31 plunges to 39%32%

Fortune article notes that a Nevada appellate panel is hearing a rival case that could produce an adverse ruling for Kalshi, reviving concerns of a split and sending “Yes” sharply down

Ninth Circuit hears oral arguments on Nevada’s challenge to prediction‑market contracts, raising the possibility of a contrary ruling and a circuit split

December 31 plunges to 38%18%

Ninth Circuit hears oral arguments on Nevada’s challenge to prediction‑market contracts, raising the possibility of a contrary ruling and a circuit split

Ninth Circuit hears oral arguments in Nevada cases (Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood), raising the prospect of a contrary ruling and pulling the

Ninth Circuit hears oral arguments in Nevada cases (Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood), raising the prospect of a contrary ruling and pulling the

CFTC files amicus briefs in the Ninth Circuit and Massachusetts cases asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, reinforcing the federal pre‑emption argument

December 31 drops to 56%8%

CFTC files amicus briefs in the Ninth Circuit and Massachusetts cases asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, reinforcing the federal pre‑emption argument

U.S. Court of Appeals rules New Jersey cannot enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi while the case is pending, a win for federal‑preemption advocates that pushes “Yes” higher

December 31 drops to 71%13%

U.S. Court of Appeals rules New Jersey cannot enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi while the case is pending, a win for federal‑preemption advocates that pushes “Yes” higher

U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit upholds the district court’s injunction against New Jersey, allowing Kalshi to continue operating while the case proceeds, which

U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit upholds the district court’s injunction against New Jersey, allowing Kalshi to continue operating while the case proceeds, which steadied the market at 38%→33%

U.S. Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit (Kalshi v.

December 31 jumps to 64%12%

Flaherty) rules that sports‑event contracts are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CEA pre‑empts New Jersey gambling law

Reuters reports that Kalshi’s litigation could soon force the Supreme Court to decide the jurisdictional fight, sparking a short‑term rally in “Yes” probability

December 31 surges to 84%20%

Reuters reports that Kalshi’s litigation could soon force the Supreme Court to decide the jurisdictional fight, sparking a short‑term rally in “Yes” probability

Arizona Attorney General files the first criminal charges against Kalshi for alleged illegal gambling, expanding the state‑level threat to prediction markets

December 31 plunges to 52%22%

Arizona Attorney General files the first criminal charges against Kalshi for alleged illegal gambling, expanding the state‑level threat to prediction markets

Ohio denies Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, reinforcing the view that state courts may block the platform and nudging the

Ohio denies Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, reinforcing the view that state courts may block the platform and nudging the

Ohio court denies Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, reinforcing the view that federal preemption will dominate and lifting “Yes” odds

December 31 surges to 61%15%

Ohio court denies Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, reinforcing the view that federal preemption will dominate and lifting “Yes” odds

Massachusetts injunction takes effect, temporarily halting Kalshi’s contracts in the state and causing the

Massachusetts injunction takes effect, temporarily halting Kalshi’s contracts in the state and causing the

Massachusetts Superior Court grants a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, reviving state‑law arguments and pulling the “Yes” odds lower

December 31 rises to 33%1%

Massachusetts Superior Court grants a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, reviving state‑law arguments and pulling the “Yes” odds lower

Third Circuit issues its 2‑1 decision in KalshiEX v.

Orgel holding that sports‑event contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction, a decisive win for Kalshi that drove the

Federal appeals court hints a split may emerge after oral arguments on April 16, prompting traders to bet that the split will push the case to the Supreme Court

December 31 surges to 76%27%

Federal appeals court hints a split may emerge after oral arguments on April 16, prompting traders to bet that the split will push the case to the Supreme Court

CFTC chair Michael Selig publicly declares the agency’s exclusive authority over event contracts and vows to defend it against state actions, boosting market optimism

December 31 surges to 74%46%

CFTC chair Michael Selig publicly declares the agency’s exclusive authority over event contracts and vows to defend it against state actions, boosting market optimism

Supreme Court decides Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump on tariff authority, unrelated to sports contracts

July 31 drops to 18%11%

A major ruling on executive power was issued, but no sports contract case was accepted, contributing to

Federal court in Tennessee grants Kalshi a preliminary injunction, finding its sports contracts are likely “swaps” and that federal law probably pre‑empts state enforcement

December 31 rises to 28%1%

Federal court in Tennessee grants Kalshi a preliminary injunction, finding its sports contracts are likely “swaps” and that federal law probably pre‑empts state enforcement

New Jersey files an en‑banc petition to the Third Circuit, creating a possible split with the Ninth Circuit and spurring a +45‑point swing to 35%→80%

New Jersey files an en‑banc petition to the Third Circuit, creating a possible split with the Ninth Circuit and spurring a +45‑point swing to 35%→80%

CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig publicly declares the agency will defend its “exclusive jurisdiction” over event contracts, heightening expectations of a federal‑state clash and

CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig publicly declares the agency will defend its “exclusive jurisdiction” over event contracts, heightening expectations of a federal‑state clash and pushing the

New York AG Letitia James issues a formal alert labeling prediction‑market contracts as “bets masquerading as event contracts,” signaling a coordinated state crackdown

December 31 jumps to 27%9%

New York AG Letitia James issues a formal alert labeling prediction‑market contracts as “bets masquerading as event contracts,” signaling a coordinated state crackdown

New York Attorney General Letitia James files a lawsuit accusing Coinbase and Gemini of illegal “sports‑betting” via prediction markets, intensifying state‑level pressure on the

December 31 plunges to 18%23%

New York Attorney General Letitia James files a lawsuit accusing Coinbase and Gemini of illegal “sports‑betting” via prediction markets, intensifying state‑level pressure on the industry

Third Circuit appeals court upholds Kalshi’s win over New Jersey, signalling a possible circuit split and raising chances of SCOTUS review

December 31 plunges to 19%31%

Third Circuit appeals court upholds Kalshi’s win over New Jersey, signalling a possible circuit split and raising chances of SCOTUS review

Massachusetts Superior Court grants an injunction against Kalshi’s event contracts, but the Appeals Court stays it and orders expedited briefing, reviving hopes of a circuit split

Massachusetts Superior Court grants an injunction against Kalshi’s event contracts, but the Appeals Court stays it and orders expedited briefing, reviving hopes of a circuit split and lifting the

Supreme Court rules on election law case Bost v. Illinois, no sports contract case certiorari

July 31 drops to 14%10%

The Court issued rulings on election-related cases, with no sports contract cases granted, further lowering market odds.

CFTC announces withdrawal of its proposed rule that would have barred “gaming” event contracts, signaling a softer federal stance and prompting a

CFTC announces withdrawal of its proposed rule that would have barred “gaming” event contracts, signaling a softer federal stance and prompting a

Kalshi obtains a temporary restraining order blocking Tennessee’s cease‑and‑desist, allowing the platform to keep offering sports contracts while the case proceeds

December 31 drops to 41%9%

Kalshi obtains a temporary restraining order blocking Tennessee’s cease‑and‑desist, allowing the platform to keep offering sports contracts while the case proceeds

Supreme Court denies certiorari on multiple petitions, no sports contract cases included

July 31 plunges to 32%30%

Denials of certiorari in other areas led to a

No certiorari granted on sports event contract issues;

July 31 surges to 58%42%

market surges on unrelated filings

Supreme Court adds seven new cases to 2025-26 term, none concerning sports event contracts

July 31 drops to 37%13%

The Court announced new cases for the term, but no petitions related to sports event contracts were granted, reducing market confidence.