Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors the Scottish National Party to win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election under the additional member system, reflecting sustained double-digit leads in late-April polls like Survation's (38% SNP constituency vote vs. 20% Reform UK, projecting 60+ SNP seats). Recent MRP models from YouGov, JL Partners, and Electoral Calculus reinforce this, forecasting SNP majorities of 56-67 seats amid fragmented opposition—Labour declining post-2024 Westminster losses, Conservatives steady but low, and Reform's surge splitting right-wing votes without overtaking SNP's first-past-the-post constituency strength. John Swinney's manifesto pledges on cost-of-living caps bolstered momentum, with no major scandals in the final week before May 7 polling day. Upsets would require improbable late Reform/Labour surges, depressed SNP turnout, or unforeseen events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Escocia
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Escocia
Partido Nacional Escocés 99.3%
Reform UK <1%
Partido Laborista Escocés <1%
Partido Verde Escocés <1%
$1,759,899 Vol.
$1,759,899 Vol.
7 may 2026
Partido Nacional Escocés
99%
Reform UK
<1%
Partido Laborista Escocés
<1%
Partido Verde Escocés
<1%
Partido Soberanía
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
<1%
Demócratas Liberales Escoceses
<1%
Partido Alba
<1%
Partido Nacional Escocés 99.3%
Reform UK <1%
Partido Laborista Escocés <1%
Partido Verde Escocés <1%
$1,759,899 Vol.
$1,759,899 Vol.
7 may 2026
Partido Nacional Escocés
$1,344,166 Vol.
99%
Reform UK
$100,139 Vol.
<1%
Partido Laborista Escocés
$60,145 Vol.
<1%
Partido Verde Escocés
$55,159 Vol.
<1%
Partido Soberanía
$21,527 Vol.
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
$21,646 Vol.
<1%
Demócratas Liberales Escoceses
$121,552 Vol.
<1%
Partido Alba
$35,565 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors the Scottish National Party to win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election under the additional member system, reflecting sustained double-digit leads in late-April polls like Survation's (38% SNP constituency vote vs. 20% Reform UK, projecting 60+ SNP seats). Recent MRP models from YouGov, JL Partners, and Electoral Calculus reinforce this, forecasting SNP majorities of 56-67 seats amid fragmented opposition—Labour declining post-2024 Westminster losses, Conservatives steady but low, and Reform's surge splitting right-wing votes without overtaking SNP's first-past-the-post constituency strength. John Swinney's manifesto pledges on cost-of-living caps bolstered momentum, with no major scandals in the final week before May 7 polling day. Upsets would require improbable late Reform/Labour surges, depressed SNP turnout, or unforeseen events.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,759,899Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors the Scottish National Party to win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election under the additional member system, reflecting sustained double-digit leads in late-April polls like Survation's (38% SNP constituency vote vs. 20% Reform UK, projecting 60+ SNP seats). Recent MRP models from YouGov, JL Partners, and Electoral Calculus reinforce this, forecasting SNP majorities of 56-67 seats amid fragmented opposition—Labour declining post-2024 Westminster losses, Conservatives steady but low, and Reform's surge splitting right-wing votes without overtaking SNP's first-past-the-post constituency strength. John Swinney's manifesto pledges on cost-of-living caps bolstered momentum, with no major scandals in the final week before May 7 polling day. Upsets would require improbable late Reform/Labour surges, depressed SNP turnout, or unforeseen events.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volumen
$1,759,899Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors the Scottish National Party to win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election under the additional member system, reflecting sustained double-digit leads in late-April polls like Survation's (38% SNP constituency vote vs. 20% Reform UK, projecting 60+ SNP seats). Recent MRP models from YouGov, JL Partners, and Electoral Calculus reinforce this, forecasting SNP majorities of 56-67 seats amid fragmented opposition—Labour declining post-2024 Westminster losses, Conservatives steady but low, and Reform's surge splitting right-wing votes without overtaking SNP's first-past-the-post constituency strength. John Swinney's manifesto pledges on cost-of-living caps bolstered momentum, with no major scandals in the final week before May 7 polling day. Upsets would require improbable late Reform/Labour surges, depressed SNP turnout, or unforeseen events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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