Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 84.5%, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations in Islamabad last week where US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Pakistani mediators but Iran rejected direct engagement. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade—while deferring nuclear talks—was dismissed by President Trump for lacking curbs on Tehran's nuclear program, prompting Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to blame excessive US demands during his Moscow visit. With no new schedules announced amid fragile ceasefire, internal Iranian hardliner rifts, and mutual recriminations, traders see significant barriers to an in-person session qualifying under market rules before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNext US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
No Meeting before May 11 85%
May 10 5.3%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,292,791 Vol.
$1,292,791 Vol.
10 may 2026
May 1
<1%
May 2
1%
May 3
1%
May 4
1%
May 5
2%
May 6
1%
May 7
1%
May 8
1%
May 9
2%
May 10
5%
No Meeting before May 11
85%
No Meeting before May 11 85%
May 10 5.3%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,292,791 Vol.
$1,292,791 Vol.
10 may 2026
May 1
$34,031 Vol.
<1%
May 2
$29,593 Vol.
1%
May 3
$24,381 Vol.
1%
May 4
$30,726 Vol.
1%
May 5
$27,024 Vol.
2%
May 6
$26,168 Vol.
1%
May 7
$25,811 Vol.
1%
May 8
$23,541 Vol.
1%
May 9
$27,202 Vol.
2%
May 10
$43,440 Vol.
5%
No Meeting before May 11
$375,999 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 84.5%, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations in Islamabad last week where US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Pakistani mediators but Iran rejected direct engagement. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade—while deferring nuclear talks—was dismissed by President Trump for lacking curbs on Tehran's nuclear program, prompting Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to blame excessive US demands during his Moscow visit. With no new schedules announced amid fragile ceasefire, internal Iranian hardliner rifts, and mutual recriminations, traders see significant barriers to an in-person session qualifying under market rules before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volumen
$1,292,791Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 84.5%, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations in Islamabad last week where US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Pakistani mediators but Iran rejected direct engagement. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade—while deferring nuclear talks—was dismissed by President Trump for lacking curbs on Tehran's nuclear program, prompting Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to blame excessive US demands during his Moscow visit. With no new schedules announced amid fragile ceasefire, internal Iranian hardliner rifts, and mutual recriminations, traders see significant barriers to an in-person session qualifying under market rules before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,292,791Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 84.5%, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations in Islamabad last week where US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Pakistani mediators but Iran rejected direct engagement. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade—while deferring nuclear talks—was dismissed by President Trump for lacking curbs on Tehran's nuclear program, prompting Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to blame excessive US demands during his Moscow visit. With no new schedules announced amid fragile ceasefire, internal Iranian hardliner rifts, and mutual recriminations, traders see significant barriers to an in-person session qualifying under market rules before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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