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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

icon for ¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 95%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 2.0%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania 1.4%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba <1%

Polymarket

$6,391,510 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 95%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 2.0%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania 1.4%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba <1%

Polymarket

$6,391,510 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría

$133,567 Vol.

95%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido

$688,020 Vol.

2%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania

$152,151 Vol.

1%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$164,089 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel

$1,115,599 Vol.

1%

Merz - Canciller alemán

$137,673 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón

$450,054 Vol.

<1%

Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.

$339,743 Vol.

<1%

Macron - Presidente de Francia

$172,552 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - Presidente de Palestina

$216,415 Vol.

<1%

Xi - Secretario General del PCCh

$112,344 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Presidente de Rusia

$478,990 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil

$163,650 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Primer ministro español

$207,848 Vol.

<1%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia

$152,003 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela

$114,609 Vol.

<1%

Ninguno antes de 2027

$129,388 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía

$215,086 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte

$95,032 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia

$125,769 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Gobernador de California

$426,186 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente de Argentina

$132,557 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia

$208,152 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México

$129,112 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria

$146,897 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Viktor Orbán's commanding 94.5% implied probability stems from his Fidesz party's landslide defeat in Hungary's April 12, 2026, parliamentary election to Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party, prompting Orbán's immediate concession after 16 years as prime minister. With record turnout rejecting his long rule amid economic pressures and EU frictions, traders anticipate a swift government transition, including Orbán's recent announcement declining a parliamentary seat to focus on opposition rebuilding. This positions him as the next leader out before 2027. Realistic challenges—such as recounts, legal disputes, or prolonged coalition negotiations—are improbable given the decisive margin and his acceptance, keeping alternatives like Starmer or Zelenskyy at low single digits absent comparable catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,391,510
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Viktor Orbán's commanding 94.5% implied probability stems from his Fidesz party's landslide defeat in Hungary's April 12, 2026, parliamentary election to Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party, prompting Orbán's immediate concession after 16 years as prime minister. With record turnout rejecting his long rule amid economic pressures and EU frictions, traders anticipate a swift government transition, including Orbán's recent announcement declining a parliamentary seat to focus on opposition rebuilding. This positions him as the next leader out before 2027. Realistic challenges—such as recounts, legal disputes, or prolonged coalition negotiations—are improbable given the decisive margin and his acceptance, keeping alternatives like Starmer or Zelenskyy at low single digits absent comparable catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,391,510
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 25 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 95%, seguido de "Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido" con 2%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 95¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 95% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" ha generado $6.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?", explora los 25 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 95%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 95% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido" con 2%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.