With the Senedd election set for May 7 under a new 96-seat system of 16 constituencies and 64 regional members, trader consensus heavily favors Plaid Cymru to emerge as the largest party, reflecting consistent polling leads over Reform UK amid Welsh Labour's collapse to historic lows around 15% after 27 years governing. Recent YouGov MRP surveys, including the April 22 update showing a neck-and-neck race but Plaid retaining a slight edge in seat projections, alongside averages from PollCheck (Plaid 28%, Reform 27%), underscore voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration and surges for both challengers. The tight contest highlights regional vote dynamics and turnout in battlegrounds, with no party nearing a majority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales
Plaid Cymru 73%
Reform UK 27.6%
Welsh Labour <1%
Conservadores Galeses <1%
$114,254 Vol.
$114,254 Vol.
7 may 2026
Plaid Cymru
73%
Reform UK
28%
Welsh Labour
<1%
Conservadores Galeses
<1%
Demócratas Liberales Galeses
<1%
Partido Verde de Gales
<1%
Plaid Cymru 73%
Reform UK 27.6%
Welsh Labour <1%
Conservadores Galeses <1%
$114,254 Vol.
$114,254 Vol.
7 may 2026
Plaid Cymru
$31,572 Vol.
73%
Reform UK
$15,170 Vol.
28%
Welsh Labour
$27,667 Vol.
<1%
Conservadores Galeses
$23,989 Vol.
<1%
Demócratas Liberales Galeses
$6,832 Vol.
<1%
Partido Verde de Gales
$9,042 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).With the Senedd election set for May 7 under a new 96-seat system of 16 constituencies and 64 regional members, trader consensus heavily favors Plaid Cymru to emerge as the largest party, reflecting consistent polling leads over Reform UK amid Welsh Labour's collapse to historic lows around 15% after 27 years governing. Recent YouGov MRP surveys, including the April 22 update showing a neck-and-neck race but Plaid retaining a slight edge in seat projections, alongside averages from PollCheck (Plaid 28%, Reform 27%), underscore voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration and surges for both challengers. The tight contest highlights regional vote dynamics and turnout in battlegrounds, with no party nearing a majority.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volumen
$114,254Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).With the Senedd election set for May 7 under a new 96-seat system of 16 constituencies and 64 regional members, trader consensus heavily favors Plaid Cymru to emerge as the largest party, reflecting consistent polling leads over Reform UK amid Welsh Labour's collapse to historic lows around 15% after 27 years governing. Recent YouGov MRP surveys, including the April 22 update showing a neck-and-neck race but Plaid retaining a slight edge in seat projections, alongside averages from PollCheck (Plaid 28%, Reform 27%), underscore voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration and surges for both challengers. The tight contest highlights regional vote dynamics and turnout in battlegrounds, with no party nearing a majority.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Volumen
$114,254Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the Senedd election set for May 7 under a new 96-seat system of 16 constituencies and 64 regional members, trader consensus heavily favors Plaid Cymru to emerge as the largest party, reflecting consistent polling leads over Reform UK amid Welsh Labour's collapse to historic lows around 15% after 27 years governing. Recent YouGov MRP surveys, including the April 22 update showing a neck-and-neck race but Plaid retaining a slight edge in seat projections, alongside averages from PollCheck (Plaid 28%, Reform 27%), underscore voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration and surges for both challengers. The tight contest highlights regional vote dynamics and turnout in battlegrounds, with no party nearing a majority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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