Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 at 14.29 million km² per NSIDC data, combined with persistently low spring extents ranking among the five lowest on record, has driven strong trader consensus toward a sub-4 million km² September minimum. Early melt-season conditions, amplified by long-term downward trends of roughly 12% per decade since 1979 and reduced ice thickness, increase vulnerability to rapid summer losses through ice-albedo feedback. Official forecasts and model runs will refine probabilities ahead of the annual minimum, with historical analogs like 2012 underscoring potential for further declines under favorable atmospheric patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
<4 millones km² 61%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 20.8%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 8.6%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 5.9%
$54,445 Vol.
$54,445 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
61%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
21%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
9%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
6%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
2%
5+ millones de km²
2%
<4 millones km² 61%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 20.8%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 8.6%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 5.9%
$54,445 Vol.
$54,445 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
$27,610 Vol.
61%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$4,726 Vol.
21%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$1,532 Vol.
9%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$1,946 Vol.
6%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$3,222 Vol.
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$1,814 Vol.
2%
5+ millones de km²
$13,651 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 at 14.29 million km² per NSIDC data, combined with persistently low spring extents ranking among the five lowest on record, has driven strong trader consensus toward a sub-4 million km² September minimum. Early melt-season conditions, amplified by long-term downward trends of roughly 12% per decade since 1979 and reduced ice thickness, increase vulnerability to rapid summer losses through ice-albedo feedback. Official forecasts and model runs will refine probabilities ahead of the annual minimum, with historical analogs like 2012 underscoring potential for further declines under favorable atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$54,445Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 at 14.29 million km² per NSIDC data, combined with persistently low spring extents ranking among the five lowest on record, has driven strong trader consensus toward a sub-4 million km² September minimum. Early melt-season conditions, amplified by long-term downward trends of roughly 12% per decade since 1979 and reduced ice thickness, increase vulnerability to rapid summer losses through ice-albedo feedback. Official forecasts and model runs will refine probabilities ahead of the annual minimum, with historical analogs like 2012 underscoring potential for further declines under favorable atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$54,445Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 at 14.29 million km² per NSIDC data, combined with persistently low spring extents ranking among the five lowest on record, has driven strong trader consensus toward a sub-4 million km² September minimum. Early melt-season conditions, amplified by long-term downward trends of roughly 12% per decade since 1979 and reduced ice thickness, increase vulnerability to rapid summer losses through ice-albedo feedback. Official forecasts and model runs will refine probabilities ahead of the annual minimum, with historical analogs like 2012 underscoring potential for further declines under favorable atmospheric patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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