The record-low Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.3 million square kilometers in March 2026—the smallest or tied for smallest in the 47-year satellite record per NSIDC and NASA data—has preconditioned a below-normal September minimum, driving trader consensus toward extents under 4 million square kilometers (40.5% implied probability). Persistently low extents through late April, with thin young ice dominating, amplify melt potential amid an emerging El Niño (NOAA watch issued April 9), historically linked to reduced summer ice via warmer atmospheric patterns. NOAA CPC UFS models forecast a below-normal minimum, though inherent uncertainties in melt-season weather and ocean heat fluxes persist. The June Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Outlook will provide updated multi-model medians.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
<4 millones km² 41%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 19.7%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 18.4%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 11%
$33,839 Vol.
$33,839 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
41%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
20%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
20%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
21%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
11%
4.8-5 millones de km²
2%
5+ millones de km²
3%
<4 millones km² 41%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 19.7%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 18.4%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 11%
$33,839 Vol.
$33,839 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
$24,522 Vol.
41%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$3,073 Vol.
20%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$1,025 Vol.
20%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$1,088 Vol.
21%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$2,220 Vol.
11%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$913 Vol.
2%
5+ millones de km²
$1,003 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.3 million square kilometers in March 2026—the smallest or tied for smallest in the 47-year satellite record per NSIDC and NASA data—has preconditioned a below-normal September minimum, driving trader consensus toward extents under 4 million square kilometers (40.5% implied probability). Persistently low extents through late April, with thin young ice dominating, amplify melt potential amid an emerging El Niño (NOAA watch issued April 9), historically linked to reduced summer ice via warmer atmospheric patterns. NOAA CPC UFS models forecast a below-normal minimum, though inherent uncertainties in melt-season weather and ocean heat fluxes persist. The June Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Outlook will provide updated multi-model medians.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$33,839Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.3 million square kilometers in March 2026—the smallest or tied for smallest in the 47-year satellite record per NSIDC and NASA data—has preconditioned a below-normal September minimum, driving trader consensus toward extents under 4 million square kilometers (40.5% implied probability). Persistently low extents through late April, with thin young ice dominating, amplify melt potential amid an emerging El Niño (NOAA watch issued April 9), historically linked to reduced summer ice via warmer atmospheric patterns. NOAA CPC UFS models forecast a below-normal minimum, though inherent uncertainties in melt-season weather and ocean heat fluxes persist. The June Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Outlook will provide updated multi-model medians.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$33,839Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The record-low Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.3 million square kilometers in March 2026—the smallest or tied for smallest in the 47-year satellite record per NSIDC and NASA data—has preconditioned a below-normal September minimum, driving trader consensus toward extents under 4 million square kilometers (40.5% implied probability). Persistently low extents through late April, with thin young ice dominating, amplify melt potential amid an emerging El Niño (NOAA watch issued April 9), historically linked to reduced summer ice via warmer atmospheric patterns. NOAA CPC UFS models forecast a below-normal minimum, though inherent uncertainties in melt-season weather and ocean heat fluxes persist. The June Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Outlook will provide updated multi-model medians.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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