Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a 96% implied probability, driven by federal judge Margaret Garnett's April 2 decision delaying his federal trial to January 2027—jury selection January 5, opening statements January 25—following his state murder trial's postponement to September 2026. Held without bail since his December 2024 arrest on first-degree murder, firearms, and federal terrorism-linked charges stemming from UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's killing, Mangione faces sequential prosecutions in New York state and federal court, plus lingering Pennsylvania counts, ensuring extended detention amid high-profile scrutiny. Cultural fascination with his anti-corporate manifesto and online fandom persists via social media buzz, but legal barriers dominate; realistic upsets like a surprise bail grant or rapid acquittal remain improbable given the timeline and evidence weight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Luigi Mangione fuera de custodia antes de 2027?
¿Luigi Mangione fuera de custodia antes de 2027?
Sí
$14,910 Vol.
$14,910 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$14,910 Vol.
$14,910 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a 96% implied probability, driven by federal judge Margaret Garnett's April 2 decision delaying his federal trial to January 2027—jury selection January 5, opening statements January 25—following his state murder trial's postponement to September 2026. Held without bail since his December 2024 arrest on first-degree murder, firearms, and federal terrorism-linked charges stemming from UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's killing, Mangione faces sequential prosecutions in New York state and federal court, plus lingering Pennsylvania counts, ensuring extended detention amid high-profile scrutiny. Cultural fascination with his anti-corporate manifesto and online fandom persists via social media buzz, but legal barriers dominate; realistic upsets like a surprise bail grant or rapid acquittal remain improbable given the timeline and evidence weight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volumen
$14,910Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a 96% implied probability, driven by federal judge Margaret Garnett's April 2 decision delaying his federal trial to January 2027—jury selection January 5, opening statements January 25—following his state murder trial's postponement to September 2026. Held without bail since his December 2024 arrest on first-degree murder, firearms, and federal terrorism-linked charges stemming from UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's killing, Mangione faces sequential prosecutions in New York state and federal court, plus lingering Pennsylvania counts, ensuring extended detention amid high-profile scrutiny. Cultural fascination with his anti-corporate manifesto and online fandom persists via social media buzz, but legal barriers dominate; realistic upsets like a surprise bail grant or rapid acquittal remain improbable given the timeline and evidence weight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$14,910Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a 96% implied probability, driven by federal judge Margaret Garnett's April 2 decision delaying his federal trial to January 2027—jury selection January 5, opening statements January 25—following his state murder trial's postponement to September 2026. Held without bail since his December 2024 arrest on first-degree murder, firearms, and federal terrorism-linked charges stemming from UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's killing, Mangione faces sequential prosecutions in New York state and federal court, plus lingering Pennsylvania counts, ensuring extended detention amid high-profile scrutiny. Cultural fascination with his anti-corporate manifesto and online fandom persists via social media buzz, but legal barriers dominate; realistic upsets like a surprise bail grant or rapid acquittal remain improbable given the timeline and evidence weight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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