The near-certain trader consensus against an arrest by June 30 stems from the absence of any active charges, warrants, or expedited enforcement actions against E. Jean Carroll. Late-May reports of a Justice Department inquiry into potential perjury tied to her 2022 deposition in the civil suits against President Trump prompted initial market activity, yet the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois promptly denied any probe targeting her personally, indicating focus instead on related nonprofit funding. Perjury investigations require extensive evidence review and typically span months rather than weeks, with no subsequent developments—such as indictments or heightened enforcement signals—altering that timeline ahead of the resolution date. While the underlying civil judgments remain under appeal at the Supreme Court, these proceedings do not create criminal exposure capable of producing an arrest within the narrow window.