Trader consensus favors no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 58%, driven by mid-April reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas confirming neither plans to retire this year, despite earlier speculation. Alito's March hospitalization for dehydration fueled rumors, amplified by President Trump's public nudges for aged conservative justices to step down while he holds office, citing Ruth Bader Ginsburg's delay. However, Alito has hired clerks for the next term, signaling continuity. With no official retirement announcements as the June term end approaches—traditional for such moves—and all nine justices active, traders see low near-term risk of death, resignation, or incapacitation creating an opening amid a 6-3 conservative majority. Upcoming Senate midterms add confirmation uncertainty if a spot opens late.