A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 after weeks of airstrikes and retaliations, has held tenuously amid stalled nuclear talks and Strait of Hormuz standoffs, but excludes ongoing Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon where attacks escalated as of April 30. President Trump extended the truce for negotiations yet expressed dissatisfaction with Tehran's latest proposal, rejecting talks under pressure while Pakistan and Oman mediate. No direct Israel-Iran diplomatic channel exists, with core barriers including Iran's refusal to abandon nuclear enrichment, demands for sanctions relief, and mutual non-recognition. Trader consensus reflects low odds for a permanent peace deal, prioritizing de-escalation risks and upcoming US strike considerations over breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$388,655 Vol.
31 may 2026
April 30
1%
May 31
15%
30 de junio
8%
$388,655 Vol.
April 30
$157,948 Vol.
1%
May 31
$0 Vol.
15%
30 de junio
$74,040 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 after weeks of airstrikes and retaliations, has held tenuously amid stalled nuclear talks and Strait of Hormuz standoffs, but excludes ongoing Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon where attacks escalated as of April 30. President Trump extended the truce for negotiations yet expressed dissatisfaction with Tehran's latest proposal, rejecting talks under pressure while Pakistan and Oman mediate. No direct Israel-Iran diplomatic channel exists, with core barriers including Iran's refusal to abandon nuclear enrichment, demands for sanctions relief, and mutual non-recognition. Trader consensus reflects low odds for a permanent peace deal, prioritizing de-escalation risks and upcoming US strike considerations over breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volumen
$388,655Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 after weeks of airstrikes and retaliations, has held tenuously amid stalled nuclear talks and Strait of Hormuz standoffs, but excludes ongoing Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon where attacks escalated as of April 30. President Trump extended the truce for negotiations yet expressed dissatisfaction with Tehran's latest proposal, rejecting talks under pressure while Pakistan and Oman mediate. No direct Israel-Iran diplomatic channel exists, with core barriers including Iran's refusal to abandon nuclear enrichment, demands for sanctions relief, and mutual non-recognition. Trader consensus reflects low odds for a permanent peace deal, prioritizing de-escalation risks and upcoming US strike considerations over breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$388,655Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 after weeks of airstrikes and retaliations, has held tenuously amid stalled nuclear talks and Strait of Hormuz standoffs, but excludes ongoing Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon where attacks escalated as of April 30. President Trump extended the truce for negotiations yet expressed dissatisfaction with Tehran's latest proposal, rejecting talks under pressure while Pakistan and Oman mediate. No direct Israel-Iran diplomatic channel exists, with core barriers including Iran's refusal to abandon nuclear enrichment, demands for sanctions relief, and mutual non-recognition. Trader consensus reflects low odds for a permanent peace deal, prioritizing de-escalation risks and upcoming US strike considerations over breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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