Israel maintains a military presence in a southern Lebanon buffer zone up to the Litani River following ground operations launched in March 2026 against Hezbollah, with full withdrawal conditioned on the group's disarmament per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. A US-brokered ceasefire effective April 16 and extended through late April has curbed major fighting but faces strains from Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks alongside Israeli responses. Lebanese leaders demand complete troop pullout in Washington negotiations, amid unverified reports of partial brigade reductions redeployed to Gaza due to FPV drone threats. Traders monitor truce compliance, upcoming talks on border delineation and permanent accords, and escalation risks that could delay or prevent withdrawal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
$400,771 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de abril
<1%
31 de mayo
3%
30 de junio
9%
$400,771 Vol.
30 de abril
$75,006 Vol.
<1%
31 de mayo
$188,379 Vol.
3%
30 de junio
$137,396 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel maintains a military presence in a southern Lebanon buffer zone up to the Litani River following ground operations launched in March 2026 against Hezbollah, with full withdrawal conditioned on the group's disarmament per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. A US-brokered ceasefire effective April 16 and extended through late April has curbed major fighting but faces strains from Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks alongside Israeli responses. Lebanese leaders demand complete troop pullout in Washington negotiations, amid unverified reports of partial brigade reductions redeployed to Gaza due to FPV drone threats. Traders monitor truce compliance, upcoming talks on border delineation and permanent accords, and escalation risks that could delay or prevent withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$400,771Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel maintains a military presence in a southern Lebanon buffer zone up to the Litani River following ground operations launched in March 2026 against Hezbollah, with full withdrawal conditioned on the group's disarmament per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. A US-brokered ceasefire effective April 16 and extended through late April has curbed major fighting but faces strains from Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks alongside Israeli responses. Lebanese leaders demand complete troop pullout in Washington negotiations, amid unverified reports of partial brigade reductions redeployed to Gaza due to FPV drone threats. Traders monitor truce compliance, upcoming talks on border delineation and permanent accords, and escalation risks that could delay or prevent withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$400,771Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel maintains a military presence in a southern Lebanon buffer zone up to the Litani River following ground operations launched in March 2026 against Hezbollah, with full withdrawal conditioned on the group's disarmament per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. A US-brokered ceasefire effective April 16 and extended through late April has curbed major fighting but faces strains from Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks alongside Israeli responses. Lebanese leaders demand complete troop pullout in Washington negotiations, amid unverified reports of partial brigade reductions redeployed to Gaza due to FPV drone threats. Traders monitor truce compliance, upcoming talks on border delineation and permanent accords, and escalation risks that could delay or prevent withdrawal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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