Trader consensus on an 85.5% implied probability of no coup attempt in Iran by June 30 reflects the regime's firm control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus amid unverified social media rumors of internal power struggles. Recent Strait of Hormuz naval seizures and diplomatic posturing, including Foreign Minister Araghchi's statements and vessel boardings in late April, have fueled speculation of IRGC factionalism or arrests of figures like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, but major outlets report no confirmed military defections, mass protests, or organized plots. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's April 29 claim of failed U.S. infiltration near Isfahan was dismissed as regime spin, underscoring institutional cohesion despite ongoing U.S.-Iran war pressures since February. Absent escalation signals like IRGC revolts or leadership vacuums, traders price low risk through the June deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$657,640 Vol.
$657,640 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$657,640 Vol.
$657,640 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on an 85.5% implied probability of no coup attempt in Iran by June 30 reflects the regime's firm control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus amid unverified social media rumors of internal power struggles. Recent Strait of Hormuz naval seizures and diplomatic posturing, including Foreign Minister Araghchi's statements and vessel boardings in late April, have fueled speculation of IRGC factionalism or arrests of figures like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, but major outlets report no confirmed military defections, mass protests, or organized plots. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's April 29 claim of failed U.S. infiltration near Isfahan was dismissed as regime spin, underscoring institutional cohesion despite ongoing U.S.-Iran war pressures since February. Absent escalation signals like IRGC revolts or leadership vacuums, traders price low risk through the June deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$657,640Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on an 85.5% implied probability of no coup attempt in Iran by June 30 reflects the regime's firm control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus amid unverified social media rumors of internal power struggles. Recent Strait of Hormuz naval seizures and diplomatic posturing, including Foreign Minister Araghchi's statements and vessel boardings in late April, have fueled speculation of IRGC factionalism or arrests of figures like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, but major outlets report no confirmed military defections, mass protests, or organized plots. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's April 29 claim of failed U.S. infiltration near Isfahan was dismissed as regime spin, underscoring institutional cohesion despite ongoing U.S.-Iran war pressures since February. Absent escalation signals like IRGC revolts or leadership vacuums, traders price low risk through the June deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$657,640Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 85.5% implied probability of no coup attempt in Iran by June 30 reflects the regime's firm control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus amid unverified social media rumors of internal power struggles. Recent Strait of Hormuz naval seizures and diplomatic posturing, including Foreign Minister Araghchi's statements and vessel boardings in late April, have fueled speculation of IRGC factionalism or arrests of figures like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, but major outlets report no confirmed military defections, mass protests, or organized plots. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's April 29 claim of failed U.S. infiltration near Isfahan was dismissed as regime spin, underscoring institutional cohesion despite ongoing U.S.-Iran war pressures since February. Absent escalation signals like IRGC revolts or leadership vacuums, traders price low risk through the June deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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