The Iranian regime's consolidation of power following the 2026 conflict, Khamenei's assassination, and subsequent leadership transition under Mojtaba Khamenei has reinforced IRGC influence over security and political institutions, limiting immediate openings for internal challenges. Recent developments, including calibrated military-diplomatic actions through early June 2026 and sustained crackdowns after 2025-2026 protests, reflect tightened control by hard-line factions amid economic strain and external pressures. Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because the short remaining window offers little scope for organized military defections or coordinated opposition to materialize without prior indicators. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from ongoing strikes, unforeseen elite fractures, or large-scale domestic unrest triggered by new economic shocks within the resolution period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,767,677 Vol.
$1,767,677 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$1,767,677 Vol.
$1,767,677 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's consolidation of power following the 2026 conflict, Khamenei's assassination, and subsequent leadership transition under Mojtaba Khamenei has reinforced IRGC influence over security and political institutions, limiting immediate openings for internal challenges. Recent developments, including calibrated military-diplomatic actions through early June 2026 and sustained crackdowns after 2025-2026 protests, reflect tightened control by hard-line factions amid economic strain and external pressures. Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because the short remaining window offers little scope for organized military defections or coordinated opposition to materialize without prior indicators. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from ongoing strikes, unforeseen elite fractures, or large-scale domestic unrest triggered by new economic shocks within the resolution period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,767,677Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's consolidation of power following the 2026 conflict, Khamenei's assassination, and subsequent leadership transition under Mojtaba Khamenei has reinforced IRGC influence over security and political institutions, limiting immediate openings for internal challenges. Recent developments, including calibrated military-diplomatic actions through early June 2026 and sustained crackdowns after 2025-2026 protests, reflect tightened control by hard-line factions amid economic strain and external pressures. Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because the short remaining window offers little scope for organized military defections or coordinated opposition to materialize without prior indicators. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from ongoing strikes, unforeseen elite fractures, or large-scale domestic unrest triggered by new economic shocks within the resolution period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,767,677Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's consolidation of power following the 2026 conflict, Khamenei's assassination, and subsequent leadership transition under Mojtaba Khamenei has reinforced IRGC influence over security and political institutions, limiting immediate openings for internal challenges. Recent developments, including calibrated military-diplomatic actions through early June 2026 and sustained crackdowns after 2025-2026 protests, reflect tightened control by hard-line factions amid economic strain and external pressures. Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because the short remaining window offers little scope for organized military defections or coordinated opposition to materialize without prior indicators. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from ongoing strikes, unforeseen elite fractures, or large-scale domestic unrest triggered by new economic shocks within the resolution period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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