**Trader consensus heavily favors 1,250+ tornadoes for 2026 (82.5% implied probability) because recent elevated activity and neutral-to-favorable atmospheric patterns point toward another above-average year relative to the 1991–2020 mean of roughly 1,225.** Spring 2026 featured multiple prolific outbreaks, including a notable late-April sequence with EF4 tornadoes, keeping year-to-date preliminary counts competitive with or slightly ahead of climatology through mid-June. ENSO transition from La Niña toward El Niño has reduced some classic Plains setups compared with 2025 but has not suppressed overall instability or Gulf moisture return. With the core season largely complete, remaining summer and fall months historically contribute lower but variable totals; model guidance and historical analogs support totals in the 1,250–1,375 range rather than a sharp drop to the long-term average. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that the combination of observed early-season verification and limited suppressing signals makes sub-1,200 outcomes unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
1250+ 83%
1200–1249 7.4%
1150–1199 5.2%
<950 4.0%
$73,008 Vol.
$73,008 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
4%
950–999
2%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
2%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
7%
1250+
83%
1250+ 83%
1200–1249 7.4%
1150–1199 5.2%
<950 4.0%
$73,008 Vol.
$73,008 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
$22,479 Vol.
4%
950–999
$3,008 Vol.
2%
1000–1049
$2,670 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,867 Vol.
2%
1100–1149
$2,104 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$2,693 Vol.
5%
1200–1249
$15,210 Vol.
7%
1250+
$16,978 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors 1,250+ tornadoes for 2026 (82.5% implied probability) because recent elevated activity and neutral-to-favorable atmospheric patterns point toward another above-average year relative to the 1991–2020 mean of roughly 1,225.**
Spring 2026 featured multiple prolific outbreaks, including a notable late-April sequence with EF4 tornadoes, keeping year-to-date preliminary counts competitive with or slightly ahead of climatology through mid-June. ENSO transition from La Niña toward El Niño has reduced some classic Plains setups compared with 2025 but has not suppressed overall instability or Gulf moisture return. With the core season largely complete, remaining summer and fall months historically contribute lower but variable totals; model guidance and historical analogs support totals in the 1,250–1,375 range rather than a sharp drop to the long-term average. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that the combination of observed early-season verification and limited suppressing signals makes sub-1,200 outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$73,008Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors 1,250+ tornadoes for 2026 (82.5% implied probability) because recent elevated activity and neutral-to-favorable atmospheric patterns point toward another above-average year relative to the 1991–2020 mean of roughly 1,225.**
Spring 2026 featured multiple prolific outbreaks, including a notable late-April sequence with EF4 tornadoes, keeping year-to-date preliminary counts competitive with or slightly ahead of climatology through mid-June. ENSO transition from La Niña toward El Niño has reduced some classic Plains setups compared with 2025 but has not suppressed overall instability or Gulf moisture return. With the core season largely complete, remaining summer and fall months historically contribute lower but variable totals; model guidance and historical analogs support totals in the 1,250–1,375 range rather than a sharp drop to the long-term average. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that the combination of observed early-season verification and limited suppressing signals makes sub-1,200 outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$73,008Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors 1,250+ tornadoes for 2026 (82.5% implied probability) because recent elevated activity and neutral-to-favorable atmospheric patterns point toward another above-average year relative to the 1991–2020 mean of roughly 1,225.** Spring 2026 featured multiple prolific outbreaks, including a notable late-April sequence with EF4 tornadoes, keeping year-to-date preliminary counts competitive with or slightly ahead of climatology through mid-June. ENSO transition from La Niña toward El Niño has reduced some classic Plains setups compared with 2025 but has not suppressed overall instability or Gulf moisture return. With the core season largely complete, remaining summer and fall months historically contribute lower but variable totals; model guidance and historical analogs support totals in the 1,250–1,375 range rather than a sharp drop to the long-term average. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that the combination of observed early-season verification and limited suppressing signals makes sub-1,200 outcomes unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes