Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Strait of Hormuz transits for the week of May 11, with all outcome ranges—<20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, and 80+ ships—priced at identical 40.5¢ implied probabilities amid ongoing US-Iran naval clashes. Daily crossings have plummeted to a trickle of 9-21 vessels over May 1-3, per shipping trackers, down sharply from pre-crisis norms of 100+ amid Iran's new mandatory transit protocols and attacks on escorted merchant ships. US Central Command's recent intercepts of Iranian drones and missiles on Navy destroyers signal persistent risk premiums, deterring commercial traffic while limited US-guided passages hint at potential upticks. With resolution imminent, key swing factors include protocol compliance rates and escalation trajectories, leaving traders evenly split on volume recovery versus deepened blockade.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
<20 36%
20-39 26%
80+ 20%
40-59 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
<20
43%
20-39
26%
40-59
13%
60-79
13%
80+
20%
<20 36%
20-39 26%
80+ 20%
40-59 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
<20
$133 Vol.
43%
20-39
$202 Vol.
26%
40-59
$91 Vol.
13%
60-79
$93 Vol.
13%
80+
$140 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Strait of Hormuz transits for the week of May 11, with all outcome ranges—<20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, and 80+ ships—priced at identical 40.5¢ implied probabilities amid ongoing US-Iran naval clashes. Daily crossings have plummeted to a trickle of 9-21 vessels over May 1-3, per shipping trackers, down sharply from pre-crisis norms of 100+ amid Iran's new mandatory transit protocols and attacks on escorted merchant ships. US Central Command's recent intercepts of Iranian drones and missiles on Navy destroyers signal persistent risk premiums, deterring commercial traffic while limited US-guided passages hint at potential upticks. With resolution imminent, key swing factors include protocol compliance rates and escalation trajectories, leaving traders evenly split on volume recovery versus deepened blockade.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volumen
$660Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Strait of Hormuz transits for the week of May 11, with all outcome ranges—<20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, and 80+ ships—priced at identical 40.5¢ implied probabilities amid ongoing US-Iran naval clashes. Daily crossings have plummeted to a trickle of 9-21 vessels over May 1-3, per shipping trackers, down sharply from pre-crisis norms of 100+ amid Iran's new mandatory transit protocols and attacks on escorted merchant ships. US Central Command's recent intercepts of Iranian drones and missiles on Navy destroyers signal persistent risk premiums, deterring commercial traffic while limited US-guided passages hint at potential upticks. With resolution imminent, key swing factors include protocol compliance rates and escalation trajectories, leaving traders evenly split on volume recovery versus deepened blockade.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$660Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Strait of Hormuz transits for the week of May 11, with all outcome ranges—<20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, and 80+ ships—priced at identical 40.5¢ implied probabilities amid ongoing US-Iran naval clashes. Daily crossings have plummeted to a trickle of 9-21 vessels over May 1-3, per shipping trackers, down sharply from pre-crisis norms of 100+ amid Iran's new mandatory transit protocols and attacks on escorted merchant ships. US Central Command's recent intercepts of Iranian drones and missiles on Navy destroyers signal persistent risk premiums, deterring commercial traffic while limited US-guided passages hint at potential upticks. With resolution imminent, key swing factors include protocol compliance rates and escalation trajectories, leaving traders evenly split on volume recovery versus deepened blockade.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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