**Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors low weekly transits through the Strait of Hormuz for the week of June 8, 2026, with the 25-49 ships bucket priced at 72% implied probability and sub-25 ships at 26.5%.** These levels reflect ongoing disruption from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February, which has slashed daily commercial traffic from pre-war norms of roughly 130-160 vessels to a trickle of single-digit or low-teen crossings on many days. Heightened maritime risks—including Iranian threats, U.S. military intercepts of suspect tankers, drone activity, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums—have kept most operators sidelined, creating severe congestion with hundreds of vessels loitering outside the strait. Recent developments, such as the June 8 statements on potential transit fees under Iranian-Omani oversight and U.S. Energy Secretary comments noting “very meaningful” increases in traffic by mid-June, point to a modest rebound from earlier lows but not enough to approach historical volumes. U.S. naval coordination of select passages and a downgraded threat assessment have supported limited safe transits, yet persistent incidents and stalled broader de-escalation keep aggregate weekly counts firmly in the low range. Market-implied odds therefore embed the expectation that these geopolitical and security frictions will continue capping activity near current subdued levels through the resolution window.