**Global seismic activity this week has been elevated by a major M7.8 earthquake on June 8 near the Philippines (Soccsksargen offshore), which triggered a prolonged aftershock sequence.** USGS data and real-time catalogs show multiple M5.0–M6.5 events clustered in the same region through June 14, alongside scattered activity elsewhere (e.g., Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Mexico, and the western U.S.). Worldwide, M5.0+ quakes typically number 20–30 per day during quiet periods; the Philippines sequence alone has added several qualifying events (M5.5+) daily, pushing the weekly total comfortably above nine. Market-implied odds of 98.6% for >9 reflect this observed surge and the statistical likelihood of continued aftershocks in the days following a large mainshock. Resolution hinges on final USGS-reviewed counts of confirmed M5.5+ events between June 8–14. Only an unusually rapid decay in aftershock rates combined with no additional independent M5.5+ quakes elsewhere could realistically bring the total to nine or below—an outcome that current monitoring data makes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 5.5 o más del 8 al 14 de junio?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 5.5 o más del 8 al 14 de junio?
>9 98.6%
9 2.1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$39,029 Vol.
$39,029 Vol.
15 jun 2026
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
<1%
8
<1%
9
2%
>9
99%
>9 98.6%
9 2.1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$39,029 Vol.
$39,029 Vol.
15 jun 2026
≤3
$3,377 Vol.
<1%
4
$2,340 Vol.
<1%
5
$3,737 Vol.
<1%
6
$4,037 Vol.
<1%
7
$4,080 Vol.
<1%
8
$4,746 Vol.
<1%
9
$4,026 Vol.
2%
>9
$12,686 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Global seismic activity this week has been elevated by a major M7.8 earthquake on June 8 near the Philippines (Soccsksargen offshore), which triggered a prolonged aftershock sequence.** USGS data and real-time catalogs show multiple M5.0–M6.5 events clustered in the same region through June 14, alongside scattered activity elsewhere (e.g., Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Mexico, and the western U.S.). Worldwide, M5.0+ quakes typically number 20–30 per day during quiet periods; the Philippines sequence alone has added several qualifying events (M5.5+) daily, pushing the weekly total comfortably above nine.
Market-implied odds of 98.6% for >9 reflect this observed surge and the statistical likelihood of continued aftershocks in the days following a large mainshock. Resolution hinges on final USGS-reviewed counts of confirmed M5.5+ events between June 8–14. Only an unusually rapid decay in aftershock rates combined with no additional independent M5.5+ quakes elsewhere could realistically bring the total to nine or below—an outcome that current monitoring data makes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Volumen
$39,029Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Global seismic activity this week has been elevated by a major M7.8 earthquake on June 8 near the Philippines (Soccsksargen offshore), which triggered a prolonged aftershock sequence.** USGS data and real-time catalogs show multiple M5.0–M6.5 events clustered in the same region through June 14, alongside scattered activity elsewhere (e.g., Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Mexico, and the western U.S.). Worldwide, M5.0+ quakes typically number 20–30 per day during quiet periods; the Philippines sequence alone has added several qualifying events (M5.5+) daily, pushing the weekly total comfortably above nine.
Market-implied odds of 98.6% for >9 reflect this observed surge and the statistical likelihood of continued aftershocks in the days following a large mainshock. Resolution hinges on final USGS-reviewed counts of confirmed M5.5+ events between June 8–14. Only an unusually rapid decay in aftershock rates combined with no additional independent M5.5+ quakes elsewhere could realistically bring the total to nine or below—an outcome that current monitoring data makes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$39,029Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Global seismic activity this week has been elevated by a major M7.8 earthquake on June 8 near the Philippines (Soccsksargen offshore), which triggered a prolonged aftershock sequence.** USGS data and real-time catalogs show multiple M5.0–M6.5 events clustered in the same region through June 14, alongside scattered activity elsewhere (e.g., Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Mexico, and the western U.S.). Worldwide, M5.0+ quakes typically number 20–30 per day during quiet periods; the Philippines sequence alone has added several qualifying events (M5.5+) daily, pushing the weekly total comfortably above nine. Market-implied odds of 98.6% for >9 reflect this observed surge and the statistical likelihood of continued aftershocks in the days following a large mainshock. Resolution hinges on final USGS-reviewed counts of confirmed M5.5+ events between June 8–14. Only an unusually rapid decay in aftershock rates combined with no additional independent M5.5+ quakes elsewhere could realistically bring the total to nine or below—an outcome that current monitoring data makes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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