Trader sentiment clusters around lower counts like ≤3 (22.1%) and 4 (21.6%) due to zero confirmed M≥5.5 earthquakes worldwide through April 30 per USGS catalog, despite four days elapsed in the April 27–May 3 window. This quiet start reflects subdued global seismicity, with no major aftershock sequences or swarms along key plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Historical USGS data shows ~8–12 such events weekly on average, following a Poisson distribution with high week-to-week variance, differentiating outcomes: sustained quiescence favors ≤3, while typical upticks in subduction zones could push toward 5–6. Continuous USGS monitoring will clarify with daily catalog updates through May 3 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
≤3 24.2%
4 19.6%
5 18%
6 16%
$19,081 Vol.
$19,081 Vol.
3 may 2026
≤3
24%
4
20%
5
18%
6
16%
7
8%
8
14%
9
9%
>9
7%
≤3 24.2%
4 19.6%
5 18%
6 16%
$19,081 Vol.
$19,081 Vol.
3 may 2026
≤3
$4,221 Vol.
24%
4
$1,091 Vol.
20%
5
$582 Vol.
18%
6
$1,345 Vol.
16%
7
$1,605 Vol.
8%
8
$1,054 Vol.
14%
9
$1,233 Vol.
9%
>9
$8,005 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment clusters around lower counts like ≤3 (22.1%) and 4 (21.6%) due to zero confirmed M≥5.5 earthquakes worldwide through April 30 per USGS catalog, despite four days elapsed in the April 27–May 3 window. This quiet start reflects subdued global seismicity, with no major aftershock sequences or swarms along key plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Historical USGS data shows ~8–12 such events weekly on average, following a Poisson distribution with high week-to-week variance, differentiating outcomes: sustained quiescence favors ≤3, while typical upticks in subduction zones could push toward 5–6. Continuous USGS monitoring will clarify with daily catalog updates through May 3 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$19,081Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment clusters around lower counts like ≤3 (22.1%) and 4 (21.6%) due to zero confirmed M≥5.5 earthquakes worldwide through April 30 per USGS catalog, despite four days elapsed in the April 27–May 3 window. This quiet start reflects subdued global seismicity, with no major aftershock sequences or swarms along key plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Historical USGS data shows ~8–12 such events weekly on average, following a Poisson distribution with high week-to-week variance, differentiating outcomes: sustained quiescence favors ≤3, while typical upticks in subduction zones could push toward 5–6. Continuous USGS monitoring will clarify with daily catalog updates through May 3 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$19,081Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around lower counts like ≤3 (22.1%) and 4 (21.6%) due to zero confirmed M≥5.5 earthquakes worldwide through April 30 per USGS catalog, despite four days elapsed in the April 27–May 3 window. This quiet start reflects subdued global seismicity, with no major aftershock sequences or swarms along key plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Historical USGS data shows ~8–12 such events weekly on average, following a Poisson distribution with high week-to-week variance, differentiating outcomes: sustained quiescence favors ≤3, while typical upticks in subduction zones could push toward 5–6. Continuous USGS monitoring will clarify with daily catalog updates through May 3 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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