Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs place San Francisco’s June 15 high near 70–72 °F, aligning with the near-even market split between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. A persistent marine layer and northwesterly onshore flow, reinforced by coastal upwelling, are moderating temperatures despite an ongoing northeastern Pacific marine heatwave that has elevated baseline sea-surface temperatures. Key variables separating the leading outcomes include the precise timing of marine-layer clearance, afternoon wind strength, and any localized warming in the Mission or downtown microclimates versus cooler fog-prone western districts. Official resolution will use the National Weather Service maximum at the downtown or airport station; final model updates tonight and tomorrow morning will determine whether traders shift toward the lower or higher bin.