Active southwest monsoon flow combined with a persistent trough of low pressure is driving unsettled conditions over Hong Kong, producing widespread cloud cover, heavy showers, and reduced solar heating through June 15. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlights high rain probability and maximum temperatures in the 26–29°C range, consistent with trader consensus favoring 28–29°C outcomes. These factors differentiate the narrow spread among leading probabilities, as enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon heating below seasonal climatological peaks near 31°C. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability in steering patterns, keeping upside risks for 30°C or higher modest while ruling out extreme outliers. Updated local forecasts and any shifts in monsoon intensity ahead of resolution will remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
29°C 39%
28°C 31%
30°C 19%
27°C 6%
NUEVO
$16,627 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,627 Vol.
15 jun 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
31%
29°C
39%
30°C
19%
31°C
5%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 39%
28°C 31%
30°C 19%
27°C 6%
NUEVO
$16,627 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,627 Vol.
15 jun 2026
23°C or below
$934 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$298 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,040 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$869 Vol.
1%
27°C
$2,478 Vol.
6%
28°C
$1,447 Vol.
31%
29°C
$2,816 Vol.
39%
30°C
$2,285 Vol.
19%
31°C
$2,059 Vol.
5%
32°C
$1,020 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$857 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Active southwest monsoon flow combined with a persistent trough of low pressure is driving unsettled conditions over Hong Kong, producing widespread cloud cover, heavy showers, and reduced solar heating through June 15. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlights high rain probability and maximum temperatures in the 26–29°C range, consistent with trader consensus favoring 28–29°C outcomes. These factors differentiate the narrow spread among leading probabilities, as enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon heating below seasonal climatological peaks near 31°C. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability in steering patterns, keeping upside risks for 30°C or higher modest while ruling out extreme outliers. Updated local forecasts and any shifts in monsoon intensity ahead of resolution will remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$16,627Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Active southwest monsoon flow combined with a persistent trough of low pressure is driving unsettled conditions over Hong Kong, producing widespread cloud cover, heavy showers, and reduced solar heating through June 15. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlights high rain probability and maximum temperatures in the 26–29°C range, consistent with trader consensus favoring 28–29°C outcomes. These factors differentiate the narrow spread among leading probabilities, as enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon heating below seasonal climatological peaks near 31°C. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability in steering patterns, keeping upside risks for 30°C or higher modest while ruling out extreme outliers. Updated local forecasts and any shifts in monsoon intensity ahead of resolution will remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$16,627Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Active southwest monsoon flow combined with a persistent trough of low pressure is driving unsettled conditions over Hong Kong, producing widespread cloud cover, heavy showers, and reduced solar heating through June 15. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlights high rain probability and maximum temperatures in the 26–29°C range, consistent with trader consensus favoring 28–29°C outcomes. These factors differentiate the narrow spread among leading probabilities, as enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon heating below seasonal climatological peaks near 31°C. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability in steering patterns, keeping upside risks for 30°C or higher modest while ruling out extreme outliers. Updated local forecasts and any shifts in monsoon intensity ahead of resolution will remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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